Chad Patrick has quietly pitched well for the Milwaukee Brewers this season, especially when playing at home.
My Pirates vs. Brewers predictions expect his home success — at least in terms of strikeouts — to continue against one of the worst offenses in the Majors.
Let’s take a closer look at my MLB picks for June 23.
Pirates vs Brewers prediction
My Pirates vs Brewers best bet: Chad Patrick Over 5.5 strikeouts (-104 at Caesars)
Chad Patrick has shown real punch-out ability of late. He’s recorded at least six Ks in five of his last six games, averaging 6.3 during that span.
Patrick only fell one strikeout short in the lone exception, and that was against an elite Cubs offense that sits second in runs per game and owns one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league.
The righty should have a much easier time sitting down batters in this woeful Pittsburgh Pirates offense. They rank 29th in wOBA, 30th in ISO, and strike out at the ninth-highest rate against right-handed pitchers.
The numbers aren’t much better when zooming in, as the Buccos rank dead last in ISO and have an above-average strikeout rate when isolating their metrics in June.
Another notable achievement for Patrick is he's performed much better on home soil. Over the last two months, Patrick has struck out 19.44% of opposing batters on the road. His K rate soars to nearly 25% in Milwaukee over the same span.
Patrick has recorded at least six strikeouts in six of his last seven in Milwaukee, and that should continue in a mouthwatering matchup against arguably the league’s worst offense.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Pirates vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Chad Patrick Over 5.5 strikeouts
Christian Yelich Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI
Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 hits
Christian Yelich is red hot at the dish. He's recorded 17 hits over his last 10 games, including 14 over his current six-game hitting streak.
The good times figure to continue against Braxton Ashcraft and the Pirates' bullpen. Ashcraft will be making his first career start and figures to flirt with five innings, giving Yelich two or three at bats against the inexperienced righty.
Yelich is poised to do damage as he profiles extremely well against Ashcraft’s pitch mix, where he throws four different pitches at least 18% of the time. Isolating those four, Yelich is hitting .415 with a .268 ISO and 57% hard-hit rate over the last month.
Jackson Chourio is another Milwaukee Brewers bat worth backing in this spot. He’s recorded at least one hit in nine of the last 10 and 16 of the last 20.
Chourio has also picked up a hit in nine of his last 10 against right-handed starters, averaging 1.3 per game along the way.
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Pirates vs Brewers odds
Pirates vs Brewers live odds
Pirates vs Brewers opening odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +162 | Milwaukee -196
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-125) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Pirates vs Brewers trend
Chad Patrick has recorded at least six strikeouts in four straight home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Brewers.
How to watch Pirates vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Monday, 6-23-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNP, FDSN |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Braxton Ashcraft (2025 debut) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Chad Patrick (3-7, 3.50 ERA) |
Pirates vs Brewers latest injuries
Pirates vs Brewers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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