We have moved into DEFCON 2 after a bad dinger board last night, with 46% of all home runs hit coming in one of the seven games. Today, with the wind blowing in and lots of rain projected, I'm pushing all my chips into one indoor game that projects well for MLB player props and home runs.
The chips are going to Milwaukee, where the projections love the prices of most hitters in this game, as regression is coming sooner or later for a pair of fly-ball starters.
These are my favorite home run props for Friday, May 22.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Freddie Freeman |
+419 |
 Christian Yelich |
+700 |
| Shohei Ohtani |
+251 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +11000 |
Home run pick: Freddie Freeman (+419)
This is a great price on Freddie Freeman in an indoor environment where the rest of the board looks much more pitcher-friendly.
It’s buying the dip on a player who just snapped a 0-for-14 stretch, a skid that came just two games after a two-homer performance. Freeman still isn’t where he needs to be production-wise, but the good times could be on the way for arguably the most consistent hitter in baseball over the last decade.
The projections at Covers love home runs in this game, and have Freeman carrying a fair price in the +330 to +340 range.
Milwaukee starter Logan Henderson is one of the highest-frequency fly-ball pitchers in baseball, sporting just an 18% ground-ball rate this season, along with an HR/FB rate due for regression.
He has been tougher on lefties by batting average, but 80% of the home runs he has allowed in the majors have come off left-handed bats.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Brewers.TV, SportsNet LA
Home run pick: Christian Yelich (+700)
Dodger starter Justin Wrobleski has some decent regression indicators, including a .233 BABIP. He has also been fortunate keeping the ball in the yard, especially considering he has become a fly-ball pitcher this season with a ground-ball rate of just 39%.
He isn’t fooling many hitters either, carrying a 4.9 K/9 and being forced to pitch to contact.
Christian Yelich is heating up after a slow start. He settled back into the lineup last week, has already launched two home runs, and finished last season with 29 dingers in 150 games.
This is a bat with 30-HR upside sitting at +700 against a pitcher with regression flags all over him. Yelich is also the only Brewer to have taken Wrobleski deep, which never hurts.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Brewers.TV, SportsNet LA
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+251)
Let’s add the best left-handed bat in baseball against a pitcher who allows plenty of fly balls and has been more vulnerable to left-handed hitters.
Shohei Ohtani started the year slowly, much like several other WBC participants, but the swing looks fully back after homering last night. He draws another strong indoor matchup today with real home-run upside against Henderson.
Ohtani is slugging .926 over his last seven games with seven extra-base hits, and if he can’t snap my HR cold stretch, nobody can.
The fair price on this, per the projections at Covers powered by THE BAT, is +210.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Brewers.TV, SportsNet LA
- HR picks: 13-86, -18.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Freddie Freeman |
Bet Now +11000 |
| Christian Yelich |
|
| Shohei Ohtani |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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