We have moved into DEFCON 2 after a bad dinger board last night, with 46% of all home runs hit coming in one of the seven games. Today, with the wind blowing in and lots of rain projected, I'm pushing all my chips into one indoor game that projects well for MLB player props and home runs.
The chips are going to Milwaukee, where the projections love the prices of most hitters in this game, as regression is coming sooner or later for a pair of flyball starters.
These are my favorite home run props for Friday, May 22.
Best MLB home run props today
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Freddie Freeman
Christian Yelich
Home run pick: Freddie Freeman (+419)
This is a great price on Freddie Freeman in an indoor environment where the rest of the board looks much more pitcher-friendly.
It’s buying the dip on a player who just snapped a 0-for-14 stretch, a skid that came just two games after a two-homer performance. Freeman still isn’t where he needs to be production-wise, but the good times could be on the way for arguably the most consistent hitter in baseball over the last decade.
The projections at Covers love home runs in this game, and have Freeman carrying a fair price in the +330 to +340 range.
Milwaukee starter Logan Henderson is one of the highest-frequency fly-ball pitchers in baseball, sporting just an 18% ground-ball rate this season, along with an HR/FB rate due for regression.
He has been tougher on lefties by batting average, but 80% of the home runs he has allowed in the majors have come off left-handed bats.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Brewers.TV, SportsNet LA
Home run pick: Christian Yelich (+700)
Dodger starter Justin Wrobleski has some decent regression indicators, including a .233 BABIP. He has also been fortunate keeping the ball in the yard, especially considering he has become a fly-ball pitcher this season with a ground-ball rate of just 39%.
He isn’t fooling many hitters either, carrying a 4.9 K/9 and being forced to pitch to contact.
Christian Yelich is heating up after a slow start. He settled back into the lineup last week, has already launched two home runs, and finished last season with 29 dingers in 150 games.
This is a bat with 30-HR upside sitting at +700 against a pitcher with regression flags all over him. Yelich is also the only Brewer to have taken Wrobleski deep, which never hurts.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Brewers.TV, SportsNet LA
- HR picks: 13-86, -18.94 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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