The Philadelphia Phillies look to claim their fourth series victory in a row when they take on the Cincinnati Reds in Wednesday’s rubber match at Great American Ball Park.
The Reds welcome Hunter Greene back after more than two months on the IR as they continue their push for the playoffs. The Phillies hope to rebound from just their second loss in their last nine games as they hand the ball to Cristopher Sanchez.
My Phillies vs. Reds predictions and MLB picks are calling for a rough return for Greene on Wednesday, August 13.
Phillies vs Reds prediction
Phillies vs Reds best bet: Hunter Greene Under 6.5 strikeouts (+115 at DraftKings)
Hunter Greene will be making his first big-league start since June 3, when he pitched five innings and gave up five hits while striking out seven batters. It was his fourth straight start going under 90 pitches, and the sixth time this season he failed to reach that many pitches.
In those six starts, Greene averaged only five strikeouts per outing and reached seven Ks just twice. In fact, in the previous three starts prior to going on the IR, he totaled only 11 Ks in 12 innings.
While Greene looked solid in his rehab starts for Louisville, he didn’t look great. His last start saw him strike out seven batters in 5 2/3 innings while giving up a pair of home runs. And he was on a pitch count of around 80 pitches in those starts.
I’m expecting that to carry over to Wednesday. The Cincinnati Reds are fighting for a playoff spot, and currently sit just two games back of a wild card berth. They will need Greene down the stretch, and they have an off day tomorrow. That means they can rely on the bullpen more than usual.
The Philadelphia Phillies have been swinging the bats well of late, and over the past month they’ve lowered their strikeout rate. On the season, Philadelphia batters are striking out less than 23% of the time against RHP.
The temperature in Cincinnati will be blisteringly hot with high humidity, and Greene ranks in the Bottom 33% of eligible pitchers in hard-hit rate while ranking in the 21st percentile in barrel rate.
Even if he gets some early strikeouts, I don’t think he will go deep enough into this game to reach his total. Between the pitch count, a very hitter-friendly umpire behind the plate, and the ball jumping off the bat in a hitters’ park, I’ll take the Under 6.5 Ks in Greene’s return.
Phillies vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Hunter Greene Under 6.5 strikeouts
Phillies moneyline
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases
The Reds have been abysmal this season against LHP, hitting just .225 as a team and posting a .352 slugging percentage. Cristopher Sanchez has been outstanding this season, with a 1.14 WHIP vs. righties which he will see plenty of on Wednesday, and he’s been even better since the All Star break.
Sanchez will limit Cincinnati’s offense long enough for the Phillies to get a lead they won’t relinquish.
Bryce Harper scored his team’s only run with a solo shot in Tuesday night’s loss, and he’s posted multiple bases in three straight games as he looks poised to break out of his mini-slump. LHBs are slugging .452 vs Greene this season, and I like Harper to get into one and take advantage of the muggy air to get it into the gap if not over the fence.
Phillies vs Reds odds
Phillies vs Reds live odds
Phillies vs Reds opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -134 | Cincinnati +121
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 | Cincinnati +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Phillies vs Reds trend
The Phillies have hit the Under in 36 of their last 57 away games (+16.00 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Reds.
How to watch Phillies vs Reds and game info
| Location | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Wednesday, August 13, 2025 |
| First pitch | 5:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSP, FDSNOH |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Cristopher Sanchez (11-3, 2.36 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher | Hunter Greene (4-3, 2.72 ERA) |
Phillies vs Reds latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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