The San Diego Padres hope to snap a four-game losing streak with an upset against the red-hot Chicago Cubs.
Chicago has taken the first two games of the series and has four straight wins heading into what’s expected to be a daytime slugfest at Wrigley Field.
San Diego has a favorable pitching matchup, which could cross up everyone’s expectations. My Padres vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks have the Padres getting a win on Wednesday, July 1.
Who will win Padres vs Cubs today: Padres moneyline (+109)
The San Diego Padres have struggled, but their last three series have been against playoff contending teams.
They’ll start Walker Buehler, who had a 1.71 ERA and struck out a quarter of all batters he faced in June. He hasn’t allowed multiple runs in five straight.
Padres hitters have not been the problem lately. They’re 28% over league average, with a .272 average and .816 OPS over the last week and 18% over, .268, .790 for the last two weeks.
They’ll face Colin Rea, who had a 5.04 ERA and 1.520 WHIP in June. San Diego as an underdog are a no-brainer today.
COVERS INTEL: Rea’s fastball is in the 9th percentile in MLB and his breaking stuff is in the 44th. He’s finding success with his offspeed pitches, but San Diego has two of the top batters in MLB against the changeup—Gavin Sheets and Jackson Merrill. Plus, Ty France is hitting .433 against offspeed. 
Padres vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 11.5 (-119)
This might be the largest Over/Under cutoff I’ve seen this season. Yes, balls fly out of Wrigley during the day, and yes, the two teams combined for 16 runs yesterday. However, they also combined for five on Monday.
Buehler has been in All-Star form, and the two Chicago Cubs batters who’ve faced him the most both hit below .154 with .445 OPS against him.
The Padres have been under in five of the last nine with most of those cutoffs being far below 11.5 runs. The Cubs have been hitting but yesterday was their first 12+ run total in the last six games.
- ML/RL bets: 24-30 -3.15 units
- Over/Under bets: 31-27 +3.30 units
Padres vs Cubs weather
Padres vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +111 | Chicago -115
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-167) | Chicago -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 12 (-117) | Under 12 (-108)
Padres vs Cubs trend
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.60 Units / 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cubs.
How to watch Padres vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Wednesday, July 1, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | CHSN, MASN |
| Padres starting pitcher | Walker Buehler (5-3, 3.81 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Colin Rea (5-5, 4.80 ERA) |
Padres vs Cubs latest injuries
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