Padres vs Braves Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Tonight's primetime matchup on FOX features a matchup that should see the starting pitching pose the upper hand early on. Jason Ence explains more as he delves into his expert Padres vs. Braves betting picks.

Jason Ence - Betting Analyst at
Jason Ence • Betting Analyst
May 18, 2024 • 14:34 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Bryce Elder Atlanta Braves MLB
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The Atlanta Braves look to bounce back from last night's loss when they play host to the San Diego Padres at Truist Park.

Yu Darvish hasn’t allowed a run in his last 18 innings and will face off against Bryce Elder this evening. Our Padres vs. Braves predictions for Saturday, May 18 explain why these pitchers should both get off to a strong start on the bump. 

Read more in our latest MLB picks

Padres vs Braves prediction

My best bet
No runs scored in the first inning (-110 at bet365)

My analysis

Bryce Elder has done a great job this season getting through the first inning without any issues. Even in his start against the Dodgers, where the Atlanta Braves right-hander gave up seven earned in just over three innings of work, he notched a 1-2-3 frame to start proceedings — facing Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman.

The three San Diego Padres batters he’s likely to open proceedings against on Saturday won’t be nearly as dangerous, and he’s got a solid record against two of them. Luis Arraez has just three hits in 12 ABs, while Jurickson Profar has faced off with Elder five times — coming away hitless each time. All the while, expected No. 3 hitter Jake Cronenworth enters this game with just three hits in his last 16 ABs.

His counterpart not only is pitching exceptionally well, but he can top Elder. Yu Darvish made eight starts this season and has yet to concede a run in the opening frame. And like Elder, he’s got a track record of success against his upcoming opponents.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has gone hitless in eight showdowns against the Japanese veteran, while Ozzie Albies has struck out six times in 18 appearances. Darvish also hasn’t allowed a run over his last 17 innings of work. 

I’m confident that we won’t get any fireworks in the opening inning, so I’m making this a two-unit play. Take NRFI at -110, a number that shouldn’t be that generous.

Padres vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)

No runs in the first inning

Matt Olson Over 0.5 hits

Bryce Elder Under 17.5 outs recorded

Matt Olson comes into tonight with a five-game hitting streak, slashing .283 in May with hits in nine of his last 10. 

Meanwhile, Elder has recorded 18+ outs in just one of four starts this season, and his last three starts have totaled just 42 in total.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Padres vs Braves odds

Padres vs Braves live odds

Padres vs Braves opening odds

  • Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-190) | Atlanta -1.5 (+169)
  • Moneyline: San Diego +112 | Atlanta -121
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-112)

Padres vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Atlanta is favored to win at -118, slightly off from the -121 opening number, while the Padres have shifted from +100 to +112.
  • The Padres ended a three-game losing streak last night, despite being -200 or higher favorites in those three defeats. The Braves have gone 2-3 following a four-game winning streak, scoring just two runs in total in their last two games.
  • The total of 8.5 sees the Over juiced to -128, with a few books shifting to an even 9.0.
  • Atlanta’s last 10 games have all seen eight or fewer runs, as have 19 of their last 20 contests. Seven of San Diego’s last nine games have also gone Under 8.5 runs, but only one of Darvish’s last five starts have done so.

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Padres vs Braves trend

The Braves have hit the game total Under in 17 of their last 18 games (+15.95 Units / 79% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Braves

Padres vs Braves game info

Location: Truist Park, Cumberland, GA
Date: Saturday, 5-18-2024
First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
(3-1, 2.43 ERA)
Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
(1-1, 4.79 ERA)

Padres vs Braves latest injuries

Padres vs Braves weather

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