The San Diego Padres play the Atlanta Braves on Sunday in a grudge match to decide the three-game series.
Dylan Cease and Spencer Schwellenbach take the mound, and my Padres vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for May 25 are forecasting a pitcher’s duel.
Padres vs Braves prediction
My Padres vs Braves best bet: Under 8 (-110 at Caesars)
Dylan Cease has underperformed his projections as his 4.50 ERA is a full run higher than his FIP (3.50). Considering the second-year San Diego Padres hurler’s xERA is also down at 3.57, it’d be surprising if we don’t see his actual ERA creep down soon.
He’s in fine form, tossing three straight quality starts. Only once in his last seven games has he allowed more than two earned runs.
The 29-year-old throws his patented slider nearly half the time, and it’s been tremendously successful (.191 xBA and .257 xwOBA). Cease ranks 11th in Stuff+ (108) among qualified starters, one spot ahead of his pitching counterpart on Sunday, Spencer Schwellenbach.
The Atlanta Braves starter had a breakout rookie season in 2024, sporting a 3.35 ERA across 21 starts. He’s responded with a 3.52 ERA this season, making the 24-year-old one of the game’s best young pitchers.
He’s been at the top of his game at home, notching a 2.63 ERA and 2.96 xFIP at Truist Park.
Schwellenbach faces a slumping San Diego team that has notched a single victory in its last eight games. Most of those games have been low-scoring as the Padres are 2-7 O/U in that span.
San Diego also tends to play in low-scoring games when Cease is on the bump, going 2-4 O/U in his last six starts.
The Braves have cashed the Under in 19 of their last 31 games overall. They typically get into low-scoring affairs at home, going 7-15-2 O/U at Truist Park.
These teams are 2-5-1 O/U in their last eight meetings with one another, including two Unders in the first two games of this series.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Padres vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Dylan Cease Over 5.5 strikeouts
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 total bases
San Diego could use a prolonged outing from Cease after teammate Michael King was a late scratch from yesterday’s projected start due to right shoulder stiffness. Four different relievers threw 30+ pitches in that game, so manager Mike Shildt will hope to avoid overutilizing the arm barn on Sunday.
Cease has recorded 6+ strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. He ranks in the 82nd percentile in chase rate and the 87th percentile in whiff rate.
The Jackson Merrill prop may seem counterintuitive in this same-game parlay that is mostly based on a low-scoring game script. However, there’s still plenty of room for him to do damage.
He rakes against right-handed pitching with a 165 wRC+. Schwellenbach has a 5.24 FIP against lefties, so Merrill will hold the platoon advantage.
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Padres vs Braves odds
Padres vs Braves live odds
Padres vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +121 | Atlanta -134
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 | Atlanta -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Padres vs Braves trend
The Braves are 1-9-1 O/U in their last 11 games at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Braves.
How to watch Padres vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date | Sunday, 5-25-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Padres starting pitcher | Dylan Cease (1-3, 4.50 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Spencer Schwellenbach (3-3, 3.52 ERA) |
Padres vs Braves latest injuries
Padres vs Braves weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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