The Baltimore Orioles came into this mid-week series against the New York Yankees with the hopes of sending the Yanks further down the AL East standings.
However, after dropping the first two games in New York, they're in danger of falling just two games clear of the Bombers. Can Kyle Bradish rescue them on Thursday?
Let’s break down Orioles vs. Yankees in my MLB picks and predictions below.
Orioles vs Yankees odds
Orioles vs Yankees predictions
I normally take issue with fly ball pitchers heading into Yankee Stadium, and we’ve had a lot of those in this series. Kyle Bradish is not really a fly ball pitcher, checking in right at the league average in both fly ball and ground ball rate.
With that, his ERA is a respectable 3.58 and his xERA is a poor — but not horrible — 4.49. He gives up a lot of barrels and hard-hit balls, but without an influx of fly balls, it’s hard to say on which given night he’s going to blow up.
The good news here for Bradish and the Baltimore Orioles is that his fly ball rate is steadily dropping. It was at 33.3% in May, 21.9% in June, and fell under 6% in his lone July start.
That has me pretty bullish about the Orioles here, especially when you consider how awful Luis Severino has been this year. Baltimore is a road favorite here for a reason.
My best bet: Orioles moneyline (-130 at FanDuel)
Orioles vs Yankees same-game parlay
Orioles ML (-130)
Jordan Westburgh to record a hit (-150)
Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 strikeouts (-134)
Well, we covered the Orioles. They’re not necessarily tearing the cover off the ball right now with an 87 wRC+ over the last two weeks but they’ve certainly done well enough in the plate discipline numbers to trust them against one of the worst pitchers in baseball at the moment.
I really don’t think the market has caught up to Jordan Westburg quite yet. It’s only been eight games, but he’s hitting .308 and owns an impressive 81.5% contact rate to this point in his young career. When you make contact against Severino, good things happen, and the Yankees’ starter has been dealing some severely depressed strikeout numbers.
Lastly, I think Bradish goes Under his strikeout total. Not only did we discuss the fact that he’s been rolling up more ground balls, but he’s also dealing to a team with a strikeout rate under 20% in the last two weeks, which is extremely good. New York is swinging the bats right now and leaving patience at the door.
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Orioles vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This total simply doesn’t seem to make much sense, does it? Bradish has been average-to-above average and Severino has been downright awful. Why, then, at a hitter-friendly park are we seeing a total this low?
Well, the fact of the matter is that both of these teams have been pretty crummy at the plate over the last two weeks, ranking 16th or worse in wRC+.
In addition to that, while both guys here have middling strikeout numbers, they’re not really allowing too many fly balls. That would seem to throw some cold water on the idea that this could be a slugfest.
So, I think I side with the Under here if I’m forced to pick a side. There’s been some sharp action tracked on the Under, though 61% of the bets and handle here are on the Over.
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Trend to know
The Over is 5-0-2 in the Orioles’ last seven road games vs. winning teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees
Orioles vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, July 6, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, YES |
Starting pitchers
Kyle Bradish (4-4, 3.58 ERA): The right-hander is feeling it at the moment, coming off a month of June where he posted a 3.75 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 28 innings. He followed that up with six innings of one-run ball against the Twins five days ago.
Luis Severino (1-3, 6.30 ERA): A pre-season Cy Young Award sleeper, Severino has fallen flat so far in 2023 with a 6.30 ERA in 40 innings. He allowed seven earned runs last time out against the Cardinals.
