We have a warm and windy weather across much of the United States, and I'm looking to take advantage of that in the MLB player props markets.
That's a big reason why Mets superstar slugger Pete Alonso is on my radar on Tuesday, April 29.
Best MLB player props today
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Gibson u14.5 outs (-115) -
Alonso o1.5 total bases (+130) -
Alvarez o1.5 HRRBI (-125)
MLB props for April 29
Kyle Gibson Under 14.5 outs (-115 at DraftKings)
Let's kick off my MLB picks with a pitching prop.
Kyle Gibson makes his season debut today after being signed by the Baltimore Orioles on March 21. Gibson had a 4.24 ERA in 30 starts last year, and he pitched to a 4.73 ERA in 33 starts with Baltimore in 2023.
The veteran has warmed up his arm with three games in the minors, but he might not be ready for the Murderer's Row of the New York Yankees lineup.
The Yanks lead the majors in OPS (.809) and are second in runs per game (5.45). With the wind also blowing towards the left field at 14 mph, I'd be surprised if Gibson can make it through five innings.
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at bet365)
Pete Alonso is slashing .337/.453/.635 and is tied for third in the majors with 66 total bases through 29 games. The four-time All-Star has been red hot and will have the platoon advantage against Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Eduardo Rodriguez today.
Rodriguez has a 4.40 ERA in five starts this year and pitched to a 5.04 ERA in 10 starts with Arizona last season. Rodriguez gives up a lot of hard contact, which is far from ideal against a powerful slugger like Alonso.
The D-Backs also have a struggling bullpen behind Rodriguez, with their relievers collectively pitching to a 4.74 ERA. With the wind blowing towards the left field at nearly 22 mph tonight, expect Alonso to get to Rodriguez or a reliever.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (-125 at bet365)
Yordan Alvarez is slugging just .359 this season, but his track record suggests he'll break out soon. The three-time All-Star entered this season with a career slugging percentage of .583.
Alvarez is making good contact this season, sitting in the Top 10th percentile in average exit velocity, and his expected slugging percentage of .513 is in the Top 15th percentile.
Alvarez went 2-4 with a homer against the Royals on Sunday which might be a sign that positive regression is starting to set in. He'll have the platoon advantage at home today against the Detroit Tigers and RHP Reese Olson.
Olson has an impressive 3.29 ERA through five starts, but his xERA is at 4.01. He's also in the Bottom 20th percentile in hard hit rate and average exit velocity, which is bad news with a stiff 15 mph breeze blowing towards the outfield at Daikin Park tonight.
Not intended for use in MA.
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