Orioles vs Blue Jays Picks and Predictions: Value Lies In Baltimore Continuing to Play Spoiler

The last-place Orioles just upset the Red Sox twice and up next on their spoiler list are the Blue Jays, who desperately need a win as massive MLB betting home chalk. But is there reason to fade Toronto, with the pressure ramped up to the max?

Last Updated: Oct 1, 2021 11:09 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Ryan Mountcastle Baltimore Orioles MLB
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The Toronto Blue Jays are fighting for their postseason lives as they host the Baltimore Orioles in a three-game series beginning on Friday night.

The Jays are one game outside the final Wild Card spot in the AL but couldn't hope for a better matchup to end the season than against the cellar-dwelling Orioles.

Although Baltimore has yet to announce a starter, MLB betting lines have hit the board with Toronto installed as a -357 home favorite for Friday.

Here are our best free Orioles vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions for October 1, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET.

Orioles vs Blue Jays odds

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Orioles vs Blue Jays picks

Picks made on 10/01/2021 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Orioles vs Blue Jays game info

Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date: Friday, October 1, 2021
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
TV: MASN, Sportsnet

Orioles vs Blue Jays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Baltimore starter TBA: Check back for a preview of the Orioles starter once announced.

Steven Matz (13-7, 3.88 ERA): The veteran left-hander has been decent in his first season for Toronto, pitching to a 1.35 WHIP with an opponent batting average of .265 across 28 starts. He is coming off a rough outing against the Twins, where he surrendered seven hits and walked two batters before getting the hook after the third inning. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Orioles: Anthony Santander OF (Out), Ramon Urias SS (Out), Jorge Mateo SS (Out), D.J. Stewart OF (Out).
Blue Jays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OF (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Blue Jays are 2-5 in their last seven games as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Blue Jays.

Orioles vs Blue Jays predictions

With just three days left in the 2021 MLB season, the Blue Jays have an 88-71 record and trail Boston and Seattle by one game for the second AL Wild Card spot. They are coming off a crucial home set against the Yankees where they dropped two of three games, allowing New York to jump into the driver's seat of the Wild Card race.

The Orioles have the worst record in the AL at 52-107 but they are fresh off a series against the Red Sox where they played spoiler by winning two of three, indirectly helping the Jays.

With a loaded lineup, anchored by MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Jays lead the majors with an OPS of .790. That said, they have hit a rut lately as over the last 15 days they rank just 20th in the majors with a .700 OPS. 

The Jays will send Steven Matz to the hill tonight and the southpaw has been up-and-down this season. In three starts against Baltimore (two of which took place in September), Matz has surrendered four homers and 11 runs in 15 innings.

The Orioles have been subpar at the plate this season but have been productive against southpaws like Matz, ranking eighth in the majors with a batting average of .260 and boasting a .750 OPS against left-handed pitchers. 

At first glance, this is a game that the Jays should win. While it's tough to trust a team as bad as the Orioles — especially without knowing who their starter will be — it's also tough to fade a team at almost +300 against a young Jays squad that could wilt under the pressure down the stretch. 

This is another selection where we appear to be going against what seems obvious: The Jays are one of the highest-scoring teams in the majors and are going up against a Baltimore pitching staff that has an MLB-worst 5.77 ERA.

So why are we taking the Under? The recent form of both lineups... and trends that suggest oddsmakers might be setting the totals a tad too high.

The Blue Jays are averaging just 3.53 runs per game over their last 15 contests, while the Orange Birds are plating 3.13 runs/game over their previous 16.

The Under is 7-1-1 in the Jays last nine games overall, while going 19-5-4 in their last 28 games with the total between 9.0 and 10.5. Meanwhile, the Orioles are 8-2 to the Under in their last 10 contests, while the Under has gone 18-7-1 in their previous 26 contests with the total set at 9-10.5. 

MLB parlays

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