The Houston Astros hope to avoid a series sweep today when they host the Baltimore Orioles one more time at Minute Maid Park this afternoon.
MLB odds for today’s series finale are tight. Kyle Bradish is slated to take the mound for the Orioles while the Astros have penciled in Cristian Javier.
Can the Astros avoid the brooms? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for the Orioles and Astros for Wednesday, September 20, 2023.
Orioles vs Astros odds
Orioles vs Astros predictions
The Houston Astros are riding the struggle bus at the worst time.
And it won't get easier as they try to salvage this series because the Baltimore Orioles have been phenomenal this season, particularly on the road. Baltimore is 50-26 as the away team and had you wagered $100 on every Orioles away contest this season, you’d have won $3,926.
Kyle Bradish has been dynamite on the road this season. The Orioles starter has posted a 7-3 record away from Baltimore with a 3.56 ERA and 3.41 xFIP.
The sample size for Bradish against Houston is just 41 at-bats, but he’s been brilliant against this potent Astros lineup. The mighty ‘Stros have slashed .122/.143/.122 with five hits, 11 strikeouts, and zero extra-base hits.
Bradish isn’t the pitcher you want to see when in a slump, and Houston is flailing at home. The Astros have dropped four of their last five and are 38-39 at Minute Maid Park this season.
"I’ve got concern, but concern is not going to solve the issue," Astros manager Dusty Baker said on the team’s difficulties at home. "We’ve got four more games here, and we’re going to have to figure it out. I don’t know exactly what it is. We’ve tried to put our finger on it."
Cristian Javier has posted a 5-2 record with an above-average 3.86 ERA at home, but his 5.16 xFIP tells us the Astros righty has probably been more lucky than good, and I believe that luck will run out today against the Orioles.
Baltimore is playing confidently and faces a pitcher who, in addition to probably being luckier than good, has seen his strikeout numbers crater from last year to this one. Javier doesn't miss many bats these days, which could spell disaster against a lineup that features Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, and AL Rookie of the Year front-runner Gunnar Henderson.
Houston has dropped six of its last 10 games overall and are 1-4 over their past five at Minute Maid Park. Take the Orioles today.
My best bet: Orioles moneyline (-104 at FanDuel)
Orioles vs Astros same-game parlay
In addition to Baltimore winning straight up, I also like the Under 9 runs for the second leg of today’s SGP.
Bradish has stymied the Astros lineup. He’s scattered five hits without an extra-base hit over 41 at-bats without an earned run over 16 2/3 innings. He’s 2-0 against Houston and spun a two-hit shutout last season in his only appearance at Minute Maid Park.
Javier has a decent history against Baltimore. Over 17 2/3 innings, the Houston righty has allowed four earned runs on nine hits and a pair of home runs with 20 punchouts against these Orioles. In his lone start against Baltimore this season, he allowed just two runs over five innings. And though he's been on a shorter leash of late due to some up-and-down performances, he will give way to a capable bullpen that ranks in the Top 10 in ERA.
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Orioles vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
MLB odds have this finale positioned as a tight one with the Astros listed between -110 and -120 on the moneyline and the Orioles getting between -102 and -110 at the time of writing. The total is generally a flat 9.0, though you can find 8.5 with a little extra juice on the vig.
Baltimore has swept a three-game series three times this season and has lost the final game of a potential three-game series sweep only once.
Houston has been swept at home twice this season and has won the final game to avoid a sweep twice at Minute Maid Park.
Over the past 30 days, the Orioles bullpen has allowed 36 earned runs with a 3.59 ERA and 4.10 xFIP over 90 innings. During that same period, the Astros bullpen had a 4.53 ERA and 4.69 xFIP over 91 frames, inflating their overall numbers.
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Trend to know
The Orioles are 10-0 in Bradish's last 10 starts vs. the American League West, and the Under is 4-0 in Astros' last four games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Astros
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Orioles vs Astros game info
|Location:||Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX|
|Date:||Wednesday, September 20, 2023|
|First pitch:||2:10 p.m. ET|
Kyle Bradish (11-7, 3.12 ERA): Bradish is one of the Orioles' young guns and has yielded 10 earned runs with 36 strikeouts over 31 frames on the hill over his last five starts. He’s 7-3 on the road with a 3.65 ERA and more impressive 3.41 xFIP over 86 on the slab.
Cristian Javier (9-4, 4.74 ERA): Over his last five starts, Javier has surrendered 16 earned runs with 26 strikeouts over 24 innings. Javier is 5-2 at Minute Maid Park with a 5.16 xFIP over 63 innings, meaning some possible regression is in store when Javier pitches at home.
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