Best NRFI Bets Today - Friday, September 12

With the Mariners struggling to hit on the road and Luis Castillo on the mound, the NRFI is the play in Los Angeles.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Sep 12, 2025 • 12:01 ET • 4 min read
Seattle Mariners pitcher Luis Castillo (58) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the second inning at Truist Park.
Photo By - Imagn Images. Seattle Mariners pitcher Luis Castillo (58) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the second inning at Truist Park.

There are only a few weeks left in the regular season, so there isn't much time left to tail one of the most profitable MLB bets all season: the "No Run First Inning" prop when the Mariners play at home. 

That wager headlines my favorite MLB picks for Friday as I break down today's slate on the diamond and bring you my three best NRFI/YRFI bets for September 12. 

Best NRFI/YRFI bets today

  • TEAM Yankees vs TEAM Red Sox: YRFI
  • TEAM White Sox vs TEAM Guardians: YRFI
  • TEAM Angels vs TEAM Mariners: NRFI

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NRFI/YRFI bets for September 12

Yankees at Red Sox: YRFI (Play at Thrillzz)

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox add another chapter to a historic rivalry this weekend. The Yankees have a stacked lineup that leads the majors in OPS (.794) and run-first-inning percentage (40.9%) on the road.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox are seventh in the majors in OPS (.774) at home while boasting a run-first-inning rate of 33.3%. Both teams also have starting pitchers who are due for major regression.

New York's Luis Gil has an expected ERA of 4.87, while Boston's Lucas Giolito is in the Bottom 15th percentile in xERA (5.00) and xBA (.274). 

  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Apple TV+
  • Bet: YRFI

White Sox at Guardians: YRFI (Play at Thrillzz)

Sure, the Cleveland Guardians have been brutal at the plate, but with two poor starters on the hill in this matchup, the YRFI bet holds value at plus money.

The Guardians are giving the pill to Tanner Bibee, who has a 5.81 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP since the start of July. The Chicago White Sox are starting Martin Perez, who has an xERA of 5.31 while posting the third-worst barrel rate (11.3%) in the majors.

The White Sox have made massive strides at the dish, ranking seventh in the majors in OPS (.764) since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Guardians are ninth in run-first-inning percentage (33.3%) at home. 

  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Guardians TV | CHSN
  • Bet: YRFI

Mariners at Angels: NRFI (Play at Thrillzz)

The Seattle Mariners have been crushing the ball on the road but have an OPS of just .690 in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park.

They're second-last in the majors in run-first-inning percentage at home (19.4%) while holding opponents to the third-lowest run first-inning rate (22.2%). 

Tonight, the M's are giving the ball to three-time All-Star Luis Castillo, who has pitched to a 2.79 ERA with an OBA of .206 at home.

He'll mow down a Los Angeles Angels lineup 27th in the majors in OPS (.658) over the last 30 days. 

  • Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Apple TV+
  • Bet: NRFI

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

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