MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Wednesday, July 29

We're halfway through the week! Let's keep it rolling with tonight's MLB moneyline predictions for every game on today's slate. 

See what teams need to be on your MLB picks on Wednesday, July 29!

MLB moneyline picks for July 29

Matchup	Pick
Phillies vs Marlins	+163
Diamondbacks vs Pirates	+122
Blue Jays vs Nationals	+108
Orioles vs Tigers	+160
Braves vs Mets	+144
Brewers vs Giants	-117
Rockies vs Padres	+135
Rangers vs Rays	-133
Guardians vs Reds	-127
Yankees vs White Sox	-135
Royals vs Twins	+174
Cubs vs Cardinals	+100
Astros vs Angels	-127
Red Sox vs Athletics	+141
Mariners vs Dodgers	-147

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-29.

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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 29

Phillies vs Marlins: Marlins (+163)

Marlins win probability: 38%

Both Jesus Luzardo and Ryan Gusto have been dealing over their last few starts. At the same time, neither offense has done much at the plate, with both clubs posting a wRC+ below 100 over their last 12 games.

I can't justify laying $1.67 with the Philadelphia Phillies just because Luzardo is on the mound. Instead, I'll take a shot on the Fighting Fish to pull off the upset in this spot.

Diamondbacks vs Pirates: Diamondbacks (+122)

Diamondbacks win probability: 45%

Sure, last night's 15-run offensive explosion was a thrill ride for both sides, but I'm still not buying into this Pittsburgh Pirates offense. Over their last six games, Pittsburgh owns just a 67 wRC+, .260 wOBA, and .093 ISO. Meanwhile, Arizona has been one of the hottest lineups in baseball during that stretch, posting a 144 wRC+, .382 wOBA, and .199 ISO.

Eduardo Rodriguez hasn't exactly been dominant this season, but I'll gladly back the more dangerous and productive offense.

Blue Jays vs Nationals: Nationals (+108)

Nationals win probability: 48%

Yeah, I'll gladly take the hottest offense in baseball as a home underdog simply because Trey Yesavage is on the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays. Never mind the fact that Toronto has posted a wRC+ below 100 for more than a month, while carrying a barrel rate below 7% and a hard hit rate below 35% over its last 21 games. But sure, make Washington the dog because Zack Littell is starting.

Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals have been scorching hot at the plate, posting a 158 wRC+, .919 OPS, .256 ISO, and a 40% hard hit rate over that same 21-game stretch. I'm more than happy to back the hotter lineup at plus money.

Orioles vs Tigers: Orioles (+160)

Orioles win probability: 38%

"But Tarik Skubal is on the mound?"

Okay... and who's scoring runs for the Detroit Tigers? Over their last 12 games, the Tigers own just an 89 wRC+, .294 wOBA, and .665 OPS. That's not exactly an offense I'm looking to lay -160 with.

On the other side, Trevor Rogers has been outstanding over his last five starts, posting a 1.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and allowing just a 5.88% barrel rate. Pair that with a Baltimore Orioles offense that's been heating up over its last 21 games, and I think this line is giving Skubal a little too much respect.

I'm not laying -160 simply because Skubal's on the mound. Give me the hotter offense behind another lefty who's been dealing.

Braves vs Mets: Mets (+144)

Mets win probability: 41%

Today marks A.J. Smith-Shawver's first start of the season for the Atlanta Braves. In 2025, he went 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He opens his campaign against a New York Mets lineup that has been swinging it well over the last 21 games, making for a difficult season debut for the 23-year-old.

On the other side, Sean Manaea gets the ball, and he's been about what you'd expect in 2026, not great. That said, the veteran left-hander has pitched better at home, where his strikeout rate gets a nice bump. Atlanta has also been striking out at a higher clip lately, which could play into Manaea's strengths.

Once again, I'll side with the underdog. Give me the Mets.

Brewers vs Giants: Brewers (-117)

Brewers win probability: 54%

I think we're getting an incredible price on the Milwaukee Brewers at +117 tonight. Some people will look at Shane Drohan's ERA over his last few starts and immediately run the other way, but the underlying metrics tell a much different story.

Over his last five starts, Drohan owns a 4.20 ERA but a 3.00 xERA. Zoom in even further, and over his last three starts he has a 5.00 ERA paired with an outstanding 2.55 xERA. He's also limiting walks and missing bats at a high rate during that stretch, which makes me believe positive regression is coming.

On the other side, Logan Webb is still an ace, but the San Francisco Giants offense has been far too inconsistent for me to trust. I'll gladly take the better, more complete team at plus money to get the job done on the road.

Rockies vs Padres: Rockies (+135)

Rockies win probability: 42%

There's no better opportunity for the Colorado Rockies offense to get back on track than against San Diego Padres right-hander Griffin Canning. Canning has been a fade machine, posting a 6.05 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, while allowing a 40% hard-hit rate and an 11.67% barrel rate over his last five starts.

Even with Colorado's offense stuck in a cold stretch, I'll continue looking for ways to fade Canning. He's simply been too hittable all season, and this feels like another spot where he gets knocked around.

Give me yet another underdog. Go Rockies.

Rangers vs Rays: Rays (-133)

Rays win probability: 57%

I have to side with the Tampa Bay Rays. MacKenzie Gore is a very fastball-heavy, strikeout-oriented left-hander, and that's not the type of profile I want backing against a Tampa Bay lineup that consistently puts the ball in play. While his expected metrics suggest he deserves better results, I don't think this is the matchup where that positive regression shows up.

Ian Seymour hasn't exactly been sharp lately, which is the biggest concern with this play. Even so, Gore's recent struggles and the matchup against this contact-heavy Rays lineup have me leaning toward Tampa Bay.

Give me the Rays to get it done.

Guardians vs Reds: Guardians (-127)

Guardians win probability: 56%

I think Joey Cantillo has a big night on the mound. Sure, the surface numbers aren't pretty, with a 6.59 ERA and 1.98 WHIP over his last three outings, but there's more to the story. During that stretch, he's posted a strikeout rate close to 30%, and now he gets one of the most swing-and-miss-happy lineups in baseball.

Over the Cincinnati Reds' last 60 at-bats against left-handed pitching, six hitters own a strikeout rate above 21.7%, five are at 26.7% or higher, and three are north of 30%. This feels like a spot where Cantillo can rack up the punchouts.

On the other side, Brady Singer owns a 4.86 xERA at home this season, giving Cleveland a solid opportunity to scratch across enough runs to back its starter. I think the Reds struggle at the plate tonight, and the Cleveland Guardians find a way to come out on top.

Yankees vs White Sox: Yankees (-135)

Yankees win probability: 57%

I think the Chicago White Sox slump continues tonight as they draw New York Yankees rookie Cam Schlittler, who has been one of the most dominant arms in baseball all season.

On the other side, Davis Martin hasn't been sharp lately, posting a 6.14 ERA, 4.84 xERA, and 1.36 WHIP over his last three starts. That's a tough profile to bring into a matchup against a Yankees lineup that's more than capable of taking advantage.

I think the Yankees keep rolling and pick up another win.

Royals vs Twins: Royals (+174)

Royals win probability: 36%

Joe Ryan deserves to be a -178 favorite? I don't see it. Over his last five starts, he owns a 6.55 ERA, and it's been even worse lately with an 8.18 ERA and 6.05 xERA across his last three outings. I'll happily take +174 with the Kansas City Royals.

Neither offense has been anything to write home about, but the Twins have actually been worse. Over their last 12 games, Minnesota owns just an 85 wRC+, .293 wOBA, and .657 OPS.

At this price, I'll take the underdog every time. Give me the Royals.

Cubs vs Cardinals: Cardinals (+100)

Cardinals win probability: 50%

With the Chicago Cubs coming off a 10-run outburst against the St. Louis Cardinals last night, I like St. Louis to bounce back in this one against left-hander Matthew Boyd.

Historically, I don't love backing a team the day after a massive offensive explosion. Regression tends to show up, and this feels like a good spot for the Cardinals to respond. They've been stuck in a cold stretch at the plate, but I'm betting they find a way to snap out of it tonight.

Give me the Cardinals to secure a much-needed win.

Astros vs Angels: Astros (-127)

Astros win probability: 56%

Grayson Rodriguez. Is that enough? No?!

The Los Angeles Angels right-hander has been an absolute fade at home this season, posting a 10.58 ERA and 2.07 WHIP, while allowing a 47% hard-hit rate and 12.64% barrel rate. Pair that with an Angels offense that's gone cold, producing just a 93 wRC+, .302 wOBA, and .665 OPS over its last 12 games, and it's tough to make a case for L.A.

Meanwhile, the Houston Astros have been one of the hottest teams in baseball for weeks. It would genuinely surprise me if Rodriguez is the one who cools them off. Give me Houston.

Red Sox vs Athletics: Athletics (+141)

Athletics win probability: 42%

Jacob Lopez has looked outstanding over his last three starts, posting a 1.64 ERA, 2.65 xERA, and an excellent 0.82 WHIP. On the other side, Patrick Sandoval has been solid for Boston as well, recording a 3.21 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over his last five starts.

Neither offense has been swinging the bats particularly well lately, which makes this feel like a low-scoring, tightly contested game. At that point, I'd much rather take the plus money with the Athletics than lay $1.44 with the Boston Red Sox.

Give me the value on Oakland.

Mariners vs Dodgers: Dodgers (-147)

Dodgers win probability: 60%

Seattle Mariners right-hander Emerson Hancock has been dealing over his last five starts, while Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Eric Lauer has had his share of ups and downs.

Even so, I can't bring myself to back a Seattle offense that's posted just an 86 wRC+, .286 wOBA, .651 OPS, and .119 ISO over its last six games. The Dodgers have been the far better offense over the last month, and I trust that lineup much more in this matchup.

I'll happily roll with the Monstars from L.A. tonight.

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