A full slate blesses us today, with matchups kicking off later tonight.
Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate, which include backing a lot of pricey favorites on Tuesday, Aug. 25
Before we dive in, be sure to check out our MLB picks to see where our experts see value!
MLB moneyline picks for August 25
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 TB at  DET |
-126 |
 BOS at  MIA |
<-155>> |
 COL at  WSH |
-148 |
 HOU at  NYY |
-142 |
 KC at  TOR |
+114 |
 MIL at  NYM |
-155 |
 LAD at  ATL |
-155 |
 TEX at  CWS |
+140 |
 BAL at  STL |
-126 |
 CLE at  LAA |
+129 |
 CHC at  ARI |
+101 |
 PIT at  SD |
-121 |
 MIN at  ATH |
+134 |
 PHI at  SEA |
-103 |
 CIN at  SF |
-107 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-25.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 25
Rays vs. Tigers: Rays (-126)
Rays win probability: 55%
No chance I take a risk backing the Detroit Tigers at plus money at home. Their bats are frozen, sporting a 63 wRC+ over their last six games.
Meanwhile, right-hander Jackson Jobe has been shaky since returning, posting a 5.49 xERA while allowing a 12% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
Ian Seymour has been solid over his last five starts, making the Tampa Bay Rays the more trustworthy option in this matchup.
Red Sox vs. Marlins: Red Sox (-155)
Red Sox win probability: 60%
Sox or nothing here. Pay the juice; Payton Tolle is good for it, and so should the Boston Red Sox bats.
One of the most exciting under-the-radar pitchers this season has easily been the Boston southpaw, who has a 2.58 xERA and 1.09 WHIP on the year.
Over the BoSox's last 12 games, their bats have started to heat back up, owning a 131 wRC+, .363 wOBA and .828 OPS. On the other side, the Miami Marlins' bats have gone cold — owning a 92 wRC+, .301 wOBA and .657 OPS over their last six.
Rockies vs. Nationals: Nationals (-148)
Nationals win probability: 58%
Keep the favorite leans rolling, as the Washington Nationals are the side worth being on this evening.
Sure, both lineups have been pretty chilly as of late, but Washington has not been striking out and has been drawing a ton of walks. Back the lineup that has been getting on base more over their last six games.
Plus, Andrew Alvarez has been very solid in his last five starts, posting a 2.36 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while limiting hard-hit and barreled balls.
Astros vs. Yankees: Yankees (-142)
Yankees win probability: 58%
Both lineups have been cold over the last month, but the New York Yankees' wRC+ has finally crept above triple digits for the first time in over two months. They are now generating more hard-hit balls and winning the games they should.
Even with Will Warren's recent struggles, the Yanks are the side to be on with how cold the Houston Astros' bats have been.
Royals vs. Blue Jays: Royals (+114)
Royals win probability: 46%
Such a tough spot with how well Max Scherzer has been in his most recent starts. The future Hall of Fame right-hander owns a 3.04 xERA and 1.26 WHIP while limiting hard-hit and barreled balls over his last three starts. On the other side, Seth Lugo has posted similar numbers in his most recent outings.
Both offenses have been on a tear, so taking the underdog against a guy going toe-to-toe with Father Time is the move here.
Brewers vs. Mets: Brewers (-155)
Brewers win probability: 60%
Yes, another favorite lean.
It is extremely tough to look at the Milwaukee Brewers' numbers over their last six games and ignore their 144 wRC+, .377 wOBA, and .863 OPS. Meanwhile, the New York Mets have posted just a 104 wRC+, .315 wOBA, and .175 ISO over that same stretch.
Milwaukee left-hander Kyle Harrison has some strong underlying metrics across his last five starts, making him a very trustworthy arm this evening.
Dodgers vs. Braves: Dodgers (-155)
Dodgers win probability: 60%
I'm not sure how we can even trust the Atlanta Braves when their team has been a complete corpse for weeks. Atlanta has a 91 wRC+, .300 wOBA, and .680 OPS over its last 21 games. The Braves are also generating just a 4% barrel rate over their last six games.
We know what the Dodgers are capable of. Pay the juice. (Again).
Rangers vs. White Sox: White Sox (+140)
White Sox win probability: 48%
After getting blown out, the Chicago White Sox will look to bounce back against Jacob deGrom, who has been allowing a concerning amount of hard contact in his most recent starts.
Across the veteran's last three outings, he is allowing a 56% hard-hit rate and 12% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
The White Sox are always due to boom, and they have plenty of bats capable of producing hard contact. At +140 to bounce back, this price is worth taking.
Orioles vs. Cardinals: Cardinals (-126)
Cardinals win probability: 54%
Real simple, Chris Bassitt has been horrible in his most recent outings and on the road this season. The veteran right-hander owns a 7.28 ERA and 1.96 WHIP on the road — with just a 10.96% strikeout rate and 11.64% walk rate.
St. Louis Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore has struggled a bit in his last few starts, but his underlying numbers point toward improvement, as he sports a 2.94 xERA over his last five starts.
With the Baltimore Orioles' bats starting to cool off, the Cardinals seem to be in a better spot this evening.
Guardians vs. Angels: Angels (+129)
Angels win probability: 43%
Getting a little frisky here backing a lineup that has been lifeless for over a month, but they send out right-hander Walbert Urena, who has been very solid for the Los Angeles Angels this season.
Over his last five starts, Urena owns a 2.84 ERA and 1.03 WHIP while limiting hard-hit and barreled balls.
Gavin Williams has been a strikeout machine as of late, but he does own a sub-1.50 WHIP over his last three starts while allowing a barrel rate over 13%.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks (+101)
Diamondbacks win probability: 49%
I am snagging the Arizona Diamondbacks as a home underdog while Brandon Pfaadt is playing some of his best ball of the season in his most recent starts.
Yes, the Chicago Cubs have been on a complete tear over the last few weeks. However, the Diamondbacks have been hitting the ball very well too. Over their last 12 games, they own a 117 wRC+, .786 OPS, and .342 wOBA.
Trust Pfaadt!
Pirates vs. Padres: Padres (-121)
Padres win probability: 54%
Quick and simple, there is no reason to back the Pittsburgh Pirates with Paul Skenes on the mound until further notice. He has completely fallen off this season and cannot be trusted right now.
The Pirates star has a 6.56 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, allowing 44.64% hard hit and 12.07% barrel rate in his last five starts.
Twins vs. Athletics: Athletics (+134)
Athletics win probability: 42%
The desire to trust Taj Bradley is there, but not in Sacramento, where the weather is always great for hitting. Plus, Bradley is a heavy fastball pitcher who gives up a ton of hard-hit balls.
He does have great underlying metrics over his last five outings, but he still owns a near-5.00 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over his last five starts.
The Athletics have a 118 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .761 OPS over their last 12 games. Tonight, they should get on top of everything Bradley puts over the plate.
Phillies vs. Mariners: Phillies (-103)
Phillies win probability: 50%
After getting completely dominated, the Philadelphia Phillies will look to return the favor this evening as they draw struggling right-hander George Kirby. The Seattle Mariners starter owns an 8.31 ERA and 2.15 WHIP over his last three starts.
Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has been very sturdy in his most recent outings, sporting a 2.51 ERA across his last five starts.
The Phillies should even the series this evening.
Reds vs. Giants: Giants (-107)
Giants win probability: 51%
Death. Taxes. Never trust the Cincinnati Reds.
Brady Singer takes the mound this evening for Cincinnati, owning a 5.00 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 12.7% barrel rate over his last three outings.
The Giants send out Adrian Houser, who has been very consistent as of late, posting a sub-1.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while limiting barreled balls over his last five starts.
Both lineups are frozen, so back the better pitcher in the matchup. Go Giants.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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