Is Kyle Schwarber an eventual Hall of Famer?
That's not a question that I would have ever considered as an actual possibility after 2020, or in the ensuing years. Not very seriously, anyway.
But Schwarber just hit his 20th home run of the season on May 15, the earliest date in MLB history for a batter to reach 20, and has his career total up to 360. He's the easy favorite (-125) in the MLB home run title odds and is under contract for four more seasons beyond this one.
By even playing it conservatively and saying he hits just 30 more homers this season for a round 50, he will need to average just 27.5 home runs over the remaining life of his contract to reach 500. Twenty-eight players have hit 500 home runs in their careers, and nine are not in the Hall.
Now, of those nine, two (Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera) will get in when eligible, and the other seven (Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez, and Gary Sheffield) have all been held out for their connections, proven or not, to PEDs.
This will make Schwarber a real test case. For now, we can just enjoy the fireworks.
Let's take a look at the current MLB home run title odds for 2026 below.
Odds to win 2025 MLB home run title
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Kyle Schwarber |
-125 |
 Aaron Judge |
+220 |
 Munetaka Murakami |
+1100 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
+1200 |
 Matt Olson |
+1600 |
| Ben Rice |
+2700 |
 Byron Buxton |
+3000 |
 James Wood |
+4000 |
 Max Muncy |
+4000 |
 Nick Kurtz |
+4500 |
| Colson Montgomery |
+8000 |
 Mike Trout |
+10000 |
 Junior Caminero |
+10000 |
| Bryce Harper |
+10000 |
| Shea Langeliers |
+10000 |
 Jordan Walker |
+10000 |
Odds as of 5-18. Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, one of our best betting sites.
Covers MLB betting tools
Recent single-season home run leaders
Here are each of the last 10 home run champions:
| Year | Player (No. of home runs) |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Cal Raleigh (60) |
| 2024 | Aaron Judge (58) |
| 2023 | Matt Olson (54) |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge (62) |
| 2021 |  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. &  Salvador Perez (48) |
| 2020 | Luke Voit (22) |
| 2019 |  Pete Alonso (53) |
| 2018 | Khris Davis (48) |
| 2017 |  Giancarlo Stanton (59) |
| 2016 |  Mark Trumbo (47) |
Popular MLB futures markets
Understanding MLB HR title betting odds
Betting MLB home run title odds is about as simple as it gets. You are just betting on which player will end the regular season with the most home runs in the MLB. HR title betting futures are usually shown in American-style odds and usually look like this:
- Kyle Schwarber +800
This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $800 if Schwarber wins the MLB home run title. Now, most of these markets close when the season starts. But some sportsbooks may post updated odds at different points in the season, and if one player has a large lead in home runs, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of their odds:
- Aaron Judge -110
This means that you would need to bet $110 to win $100 on Judge winning the MLB home run title. If you want to see the odds in a different format, check out our odds converter tool.
MLB HR Leader FAQ
New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge is the betting favorite to lead MLB in home runs.
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge led MLB in home runs with 58. It was the second time he's claimed the MLB home run crown.
After slugging 27 home runs in 2024, New York Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton is the active leader with 429 career long balls. Mike Trout (378) and Paul Goldschmidt (362) are next in line.
The last player to lead the majors in home runs in back-to-back seasons is Jose Bautista, who hit 54 in 2010 and 43 in 2011 as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays.
