The New York Mets are only the slightest -103 moneyline favorite against the Cleveland Guardians as two in-form arms take the hill.
Christian Scott's recent dominance is hard to overlook, which is why my Mets vs. Guardians predictions are targeting the visitors to take this contest.
Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 5.
Who will win Mets vs Guardians today: Mets moneyline (-103)
Christian Scott has been lights-out for the New York Mets lately. The right-hander owns a 1.37 FIP across his last four starts, and has not allowed a single home run during that span.
Scott has also limited opponents to a mere 2% barrel rate.
The Cleveland Guardians counter with Tanner Bibee, who has also been dealing lately with a 3.02 FIP over his previous two appearances. However, Bibee has been more vulnerable at home this season, posting a 4.94 FIP compared to a 3.93 mark on the road.
The Mets are cold offensively with a 54 wRC+ in the last week, but Scott’s current form gives them enough of a pitching edge to win a tight one.
Play to -120.
COVERS INTEL: Scott has traveled well this season, posting a 3.15 road FIP compared to a 3.87 mark at Citi Field. 
Mets vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-125)
The Under looks like the stronger angle tonight. Between Scott and Bibee, this is an intriguing pitching matchup that does not point to much early scoring. There also is not a great path to late offense.
When Scott exits, he'll hand the ball to a Mets bullpen that's collected a 2.57 xERA over the last week while allowing just 0.72 HR/9. New York’s relief corps has also limited opponents to a 28.4% hard-hit rate.
Cleveland’s bullpen is the main concern after posting a 6.52 FIP over its last 18 2/3 innings, but the Mets are not swinging it well enough right now to assume a late offensive surge.
Play to -130.
- ML/RL bets: 42-54, -17.82 units
- Over/Under bets: 53-41, +5.23 units
Mets vs Guardians weather
Conditions look ideal at Progressive Field tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from the low 80s into the upper 70s. Winds should be very light, and rain chances are minimal. Weather should have little impact on scoring or ball carry.
Mets vs Guardians odds
- Moneyline: Mets -103 | Guardians +100
- Run line: Mets -1.5 (+156) | Guardians +1.5 (-163)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+122) | Under 8.5 (-125)
Mets vs Guardians trend
The Mets have hit the Under in 26 of their last 45 away games (+7.15 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Guardians.
How to watch Mets vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Wednesday, August 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, Guardians.TV |
| Mets starting pitcher | Christian Scott (3-3, 2.99 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Tanner Bibee (4-11, 3.81 ERA) |
Mets vs Guardians latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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