Marlins vs Mets Picks and Predictions: New York Delivers in Tightening Division Race

New York and Atlanta look set to scrap to the finish line for the divisional crown, so the Mets can't afford any slips before then. Today's meeting with the Marlins and Jesus Luzardo is a good matchup and one our picks expect NYM to exploit.

Last Updated: Sep 28, 2022 11:24 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jesus Luzardo Miami Marlins MLB
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The New York Mets will try to prevent falling out of first place in the NL East on Wednesday night as they host the Miami Marlins in the finale of a two-game series at Citi Field.

The Marlins beat the Mets 6-4 on Tuesday night, and following a Braves victory over the Nationals, the two teams are now tied atop the division with one week remaining in the regular season.

Will Taijuan Walker help keep the Mets afloat against Jesus Luzardo? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Marlins vs. Mets on Wednesday, September 28.

Marlins vs Mets best odds

Marlins vs Mets picks and predictions

Taking the Mets as the favorites on the run line is naturally a riskier play than the moneyline, but the juice is worth the squeeze in this case. 

Taijuan Walker has struck out 35 Marlins over 32 1-3 innings of work against them this year while authoring a 2.23 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. The Mets are 4-1 behind him in those five starts, covering on the run line on three occasions. That’s due in a part to a bullpen that boasts some reliable high-leverage arms. 

Closer Edwin Diaz hasn’t been called upon that often in September (six appearances, 6 2-3 innings), but his last 5 2-3 innings on the mound have been scoreless. He’s accumulated 12 strikeouts in that span. Potentially preceding Diaz is Trevor May — who had a seven-game scoreless streak snapped by the Oakland A’s on Saturday — and Adam Ottavino, who has a .148 opponent batting average in high leverage situations this season.

Opposing Walker is Jesus Luzardo, who has a 0.66 ERA against the Cubs over 13 2-3 innings, but a 4.10 ERA against everyone else over 74 2-3 frames. That includes a disastrous start against the Mets on September 11, when he pitched to a 13.50 ERA and a .375 opponent batting average. 

The southpaw should get little mercy from lefties, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil. The former is 2-for-2 against Luzardo with a home run and a double, while the latter is 2-for-5 with an RBI. That’s not to mention the Mets’ two 100-RBI men in the middle of the order, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso

Once Luzardo exits, the Mets’ bats will get to attack a Miami relief corps that owns a 4.50 ERA over the last two weeks, 20th in the majors in that span. 

My best bet: Mets -1.5 (+120 at BetMGM)

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Marlins vs Mets moneyline analysis

New York will be the pick in this market despite the relatively heavy odds, as the trends are squarely in its favor.

The Mets are 17-4 in their last 21 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15, suggesting that their bats are rising to the occasion when it’s called for. The Amazins are also 41-15 in their last 56 games following a loss, so their bounce-back ability is quite strong. 

Meanwhile, the Marlins are 12-27 in their last 39 games against right-handed starters, and 13-39 in their last 52 games against teams with winning records, so this is a terrible spot for them on Wednesday night. Motivation must surely be lacking in the Miami clubhouse as well, with manager Don Mattingly due to get the axe at the end of the year. 

The other thing that’s lacking with the Fish is run support for their pitching staff. This lineup is a pitiful 28th in runs per game at 3.59. That makes this team tough to trust for bettors at any price.

Marlins vs Mets Over/Under analysis

Bettors should expect the Mets to do most of the heavy lifting en route to an Over at Citi Field on Wednesday night.

The Over is 8-0 in the Mets’ last eight games against left-handed starters, so this club has figured out how to hit southpaws after some initial struggles this season. Alonso’s OPS drops only slightly from .872 to .853 against lefties in 2022. Lindor’s actually rises slightly from .802 to .803. 

Eduardo Escobar has been one of New York’s best bats when it comes to attacking portsiders, as he owns a .792 OPS against them this year. By contrast, his OPS against righties is .674. Escobar has been one of the Mets’ hottest hitters down the stretch, authoring a team-best .974 OPS in September. 

Miami’s lineup has played some respectable baseball this month, recording a .242 batting average, 17th in the majors. Bryan De La Cruz – who had two extra-base hits and an RBI in Tuesday’s triumph – has been scorching hot in September, batting .396 with four homers and 15 RBI.  

Trend bettors should note that the Over is 6-2 in the Marlins’ last eight games against teams with winning records. 

Marlins vs Mets trend to know

The Marlins are 0-7 in Jesus Luzardo’s last seven starts against teams with winning records. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Mets

Marlins vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Date: Wednesday, September 28, 2022
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers

Jesus Luzardo (3-7, 3.57 ERA): Luzardo is fresh off arguably his best start of 2022, as he struck out 11 Cubs batters over 6 2-3 innings of one-run baseball last Wednesday. However, he was rocked by the Mets in his lone outing against them this year, allowing five earned runs over 3 1-3 innings before departing on Sept. 11. 

Taijuan Walker (12-5, 3.53 ERA): Walker took only his fifth loss of the season when he allowed four runs over six frames to the Brewers in a 6-0 defeat last Wednesday. He could shake that off as he faces the Marlins though, as he holds a 2.23 ERA against them over five starts (32 1-3 innings) this year.

Marlins vs Mets latest injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Marlins vs Mets weather

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