Call me lazy, but I'm doubling down on Aaron Nola. I already have Kyle Stowers on the card, but Heriberto Hernandez is just as appealing at this price. Since the start of July, Hernandez leads the Marlins in home runs (7), slugging percentage (.684), ISO (.382), and xwOBA (.384). He's not just taking advantage of one side of the plate either, as he has shown power against both right-handed and left-handed pitching. Only five players in MLB have hit more home runs than Hernandez during July, and his power surge lines up perfectly with today's matchup. Nola might be the best home run target on the slate, and I'm happy to double dip with these Marlins bats.

Dean Kremer is always a good pitcher fade and even better today on the road with 18-mph winds blowing out to center field. Lefties always give the Baltimore starter trouble, with 70% of his home runs allowed this year and 66% since 2024. That puts me on a left-handed bat of Detroit, and I'm settling on the rookie, Kevin McGonigle, at +488. The AL rookie of the year betting favorite (-240) has a fair price of around +420, with his last HR cashing at +375 vs. another righty in Ryan Johnson. Looking under the hood, his IdealAtkAng% tops the team over the last week, and he is getting a ton of balls in play with just a 4% walk rate and hitting .306 over his last nine games, which comes with a hit in all but one of those games. Is he crushing the ball right now? Not exactly, but this matchup and wind are enough to aid any hitter, especially one who owns a .859 OPS vs. right-handers and might not have to face any left-handed options out of the Baltimore bullpen today.

The Minnesota starter is coming off a 109-pitch outing in his last start and sits just 30 innings away from his career high. The Kansas City offense is much weaker without Bobby Witt, but the workload could still impact Taj Bradley's efficiency today. Minnesota is one of the warmer parks on the slate with temperatures around 88 degrees at first pitch, which only adds to the fatigue angle. Bradley might not get hit hard, but longer innings could become an issue, especially for a pitcher who already struggles with command with 46 walks over 114 innings. This is a big price for a pitcher coming off a massive workload with career highs approaching. With Minnesota sitting just a game out of the Wild Card race, the Twins will need to balance winning now with managing Bradley's usage.

Anthony Kay looks like he might be slowing down in his first MLB season since 2023. His last five outings have lasted 79, 83, 92, 48, and 73 pitches, and over that stretch, he has cleared this number just once with 17 strikeouts across 22 innings. Kay likely needs to reach 18 outs to get to five punchouts, and that is something he has done only once over his last 10 starts. The matchup against the Yankees always brings some risk, as New York has been a Top-3 strikeout offense all season, but 16-mph winds blowing out to right field aren't going to help Kay stay on the mound. The Yankees also chased him after just four innings in their last meeting in June, when Kay finished with only two strikeouts. The stuff can play, but the inconsistency and leash remain the biggest concerns. Covers projections have Kay at 4.31 strikeouts, making the break-even price around -130.

With two below average pitchers taking the mound, this game has all the makings of a high scoring affair. Colin Rea has been a disaster on the road, posting a 6.45 ERA, 5.66 xERA, and 1.61 WHIP while allowing an 11.05% barrel rate. Michael McGreevy hasn't been much better away from home, carrying a 4.58 expected ERA with a 41.57% hard hit rate and 9.55% barrel rate allowed. Neither starter inspires much confidence, and both lineups should have opportunities to do damage. It only takes one of these arms to unravel for this game to fly over the total.

Willson Contreras came up short Monday, but I'm going right back to him against Gage Jump. Contreras owns an elite Batters-Box rating, covers 84% of Jump's pitch mix, and has been crushing left handed pitching all season. Over his last 30 at bats against southpaws, he's posted a .600 slugging percentage, 1.000 OPS, and .320 ISO while consistently producing hard contact. Jump has been hammered by right handed hitters, allowing elite expected numbers along with plenty of hard hit balls and barrels. Everything points to another premium matchup, and I'm backing Contreras to bounce back in a big way tonight.

Freddie Freeman continues to be one of the safest hitters to back, especially against right handed pitching. The Dodgers first baseman enters with an elite Batters-Box rating and has cashed this prop in nearly 69% of his elite rated matchups this season. He's also scorching hot at the plate, posting a .407 batting average and .952 OPS over his last 30 at bats against righties. On the other side, Luis Castillo has struggled against left handed hitters on the road, allowing plenty of quality contact. With Freeman swinging it this well against a vulnerable matchup, I'll back him to clear 1.5 total bases once again.

The Mets have consistently hit Chris Sale well, producing a .920 OPS against him. New York’s bats are also heating up, ranking fifth in OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, Christian Scott faces a daunting challenge against a Braves lineup that's been one of baseball’s best against right-handed pitching this month. Add in Atlanta’s struggling bullpen, and this game has a strong chance to clear the total.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.