It’s the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros in a divisional battle on Sunday Night Baseball.
The Mariners are looking to solidify their playoff position and get a sweep in the process. The Astros will be looking to avoid that fate.
Check out my Mariners vs. Astros predictions and Sunday Night Baseball player props below for more.
Mariners vs Astros Sunday Night Baseball props
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Gilbert o6.5 strikeouts (-102) -
Alexander u5.5 hits allowed (-120) - Suarez to hit a home run (+375)
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Prop #1: Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 strikeouts
I projected this number nearly a full strikeout higher, so I love the value on the Over. Logan Gilbert went Over this number in his first meeting with the Houston Astros earlier this season. Although that doesn’t mean much now, it certainly makes sense.
The Astros collectively aren’t a particularly high-strikeout team, which is interesting given how much they chase and swing overall. They’ll come into this matchup ranking second and third, respectively, in both metrics, which should be music to Gilbert’s ears.
Why? Because getting chase outside the zone is a strength of his. We know about his impressive strikeout metrics overall, and with that comes a fair amount of chase on pitches outside the zone. On the year, he sits in the Top 30% of such metrics, and I suspect he’ll lean on that this evening.
Prop #2: Jason Alexander Under 5.5 hits allowed
Things have been better for Jason Alexander as we’ve turned to the second half of the season, with the past two months delivering a sub-3.00 ERA. I like this matchup for him tonight, a team he's not faced this season for one overriding reason: his ability to induce the ground ball.
The Seattle Mariners rank about average in this metric on the season, but over the last month, that number has risen to the fourth-highest in the league.
That bodes well for Alexander, whose best attribute is getting ground balls at a rate in the Top 30% of the sport. I’m expecting a fair amount of soft contact tonight from Seattle. It would align with Alexander’s past performances against ground-ball-heavy teams.
Prop #3: Eugenio Suarez to hit a home run
It all lines up nicely for Eugenio Suarez tonight.
For starters, the primary driving factor is Suarez’s ability to avoid the ground ball. He’ll come into this game with the lowest rate among Mariners players, and as we’ve noted previously, that’s a big deal when facing Alexander.
It’ll also allow him to expose Alexander’s biggest flaws, like a hard-hit rate in the Bottom 5% of the sport. Suarez has already done damage to a previous ground-ball-heavy Astros pitcher this season when he went deep on Cristian Javier. We could see something similar materialize tonight.
The pitching arsenal helps, too. Alexander’s pitch mix is centered mostly around breaking balls, with the slider and sweeper making up over 50% of his arsenal. That’s ideal for Suarez, who grades out in the Top 20th percentile in most metrics when facing those pitches.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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