There is a full 15-game MLB slate on Sunday, with plenty of MLB player props to choose from.
I have compiled my three best home run props for Sunday. As always, monitor the odds and available pricing, as the player prop market is constantly changing.
Here are my free MLB home run picks for Sunday, September 21.
Best MLB home run props today
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Kyle Schwarber (+316) -
Cal Raleigh (+250) - Jorge Polanco (+475)
- 💲 +6938 parlay💲
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HR Prop #1: Kyle Schwarber
The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Philadelphia Phillies to kick off MLB’s afternoon slate. Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for Arizona and should serve as a good fade candidate.
Through 27 starts this season, Rodriguez has posted a 5.12 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally poor, given that the southpaw ranks in the bottom third of the league in expected ERA (xERA) and expected batting average (xBA).
Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber is a strong candidate to take advantage of this matchup. He has homered in four of his past 11 games and boasts a .275 batting average, .625 slugging percentage, and 1.045 OPS during that stretch. He gets a spot in my MLB picks.
HR Prop #2: Cal Raleigh
ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball features the Houston Astros hosting the Seattle Mariners in a heated battle for divisional control.
Speaking of power hitters, there are few better right now than Seattle’s Cal Raleigh, who leads the league with 57 home runs. He has gone deep four times in his past six games, slashing .348/.913/1.357 over that span.
For the season, Raleigh ranks in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage (xSLG) and the 99th percentile in barrel rate.
HR Prop #3: Jorge Polanco
Another Mariners hitter to consider Sunday is Jorge Polanco. Right-hander Jason Alexander takes the mound for Houston, and he has had a year to forget.
Through 16 appearances, Alexander ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate.
Polanco is a solid candidate to capitalize on those struggles, especially given his small but successful history against Alexander. He’s 1-for-2 in his career, and that one hit was a home run.
Today’s HR parlay
Kyle Schwarber
Cal Raleigh
Jorge Polanco
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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