After dethroning the defending champion New York Liberty in Game 3, the Phoenix Mercury have advanced to the semifinals to face last season’s runner-up, the Minnesota Lynx.
My Mercury vs. Lynx predictions expect Minnesota to take care of business at home in a low-scoring game, thanks to strong play from veteran guard Kayla McBride.
Read more in my WNBA picks for Sunday, September 21.
Mercury vs Lynx predictions
My Mercury vs Lynx best bet: Lynx -6.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
The Minnesota Lynx were the best team in the WNBA for most of the regular season, finishing with a franchise-record 34 wins and delivering easily the best net rating in the W at 12.1.
The Lynx won three of four matchups vs. the Phoenix Mercury, winning a tight, three-point game in Phoenix and delivering victories of 23 and 13 points at Target Center. Minnesota’s lone loss came on the road as the Mercury used a 19-4 closing run and a career-high 29 points from Alyssa Thomas to steal a come-from-behind win.
Simply put, the Lynx are the better squad. Phoenix had a great season and a phenomenal first-round series, but Minnesota is far better on both ends of the court than the Liberty, and the difference in opponents will be noticeable from the jump.
Minnesota went 26-20-1 ATS this season, and the Lynx finished with a whopping 16.8 net rating at home and a 20-2 mark straight up. The Lynx haven’t played since Wednesday after taking down the Golden State Valkyries in two, and they’ll be rested and ready. Phoenix just gritted out a three-game series with New York that ended late Friday night.
I’m backing the home team here. They’re well-rested and on a mission to avenge last season’s heartbreaking Finals defeat.
Mercury vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Lynx -6.5
Under 157.5
Kayla McBride Over 19.5 PRA
The Mercury and Lynx boast two of the best defenses in the W, and the two teams hit the Under in all four matchups this season. After finishing with point totals of 145, 153, 150, and 143, I’m betting on another low-scoring contest. There’s no reason to expect a sudden onslaught of scoring from two methodical, hard-nosed squads, especially in the semifinals.
Kayla McBride averaged 20 PRA this season, and she was particularly effective against the Mercury. She posted at least 20 PRA in three of four matchups with Phoenix and finished with 23 and 28 PRA in two home contests. Napheesa Collier averaged just 25.3 PRA in three matchups with the Mercury, seeing a dip in production while McBride excelled. The latter has averaged 23 PRA in two playoff games this year, and she hit the Over in both. I expect a third straight Over today.
Mercury vs Lynx odds
Mercury vs Lynx live odds
Mercury vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +6.5 (-106) | Minnesota -6.5 (-114)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +250 | Minnesota -325
- Over/Under: Over 157.5 (-110) | Under 157.5 (-110)
Mercury vs Lynx trend
Minnesota covered the spread in both home matchups with Phoenix this season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Lynx.
How to watch Mercury vs Lynx
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Sunday, September 21, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Mercury vs Lynx latest injuries
Mercury: None to report.
Lynx: DiJonai Carrington (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
