The New York Yankees look for revenge against the Baltimore Orioles after dropping last night's game 4-2.
My Yankees vs. Orioles predictions are bullish on Aaron Judge and the Bronx Bombers putting wood on the ball against Baltimore SP Tomoyuki Sugano.
I dig deeper into the matchup with my MLB picks for Saturday, September 20.
Yankees vs Orioles prediction
Yankees vs Orioles best bet: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge leads the American League with 345 total bases, so it's rare that we get even money for him to pick up two in a game. That's exactly the line we're getting against Baltimore Orioles SP Tomoyuki Sugano.
You can't put too much stock into small sample sizes as this is Sugano's first year in MLB, but Judge has gone 4-for-5 against him across two games.
But Judge is also one of those hitters who is largely immune to matchup advantages. In 2025, he's batting .328 vs. left-handers while hitting .327 against righties.
And even if he's slumped a bit in the last few games, clearing this prop just once in five contests, he has 48 home runs on the year and remains a threat to go deep every time he steps in the box.
I like the Yankees to take this game fairly handily, and Judge will be a primary culprit against the pitch-to-contact Sugano, who ranks in the seventh percentile in whiff, strikeout, and barrel rates, and is in the third percentile in expected ERA and expected batting average.
Sugano's a smoldering stick of dynamite every time he toes the rubber, and New York will trigger the explosion.
Yankees vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Trent Grisham has largely settled in as the team's leadoff hitter vs. RHP, and it's easy to see why. He's batting .259 vs. righties (compared to .183 vs. southpaws) with 27 home runs, eight doubles, and 63 RBI. You could target his runs scored prop, but the Over on his total bases prop offers a better multiplier.
With Judge, Grisham, and others doing damage against Sugano and the ensuing Orioles bullpen, which has a 4.52 ERA since August 1, the Yankees will win this by at least two runs.
Yankees vs Orioles SGP
- Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
- Trent Grisham Over 1.5 total bases
- Yankees -1.5
Yankees vs Orioles odds
- Moneyline: New York -200 | Baltimore +165
- Run line: New York -1.5 (-125) | Baltimore +1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Yankees vs Orioles trend
The Yankees had won three straight vs. Baltimore before Friday's loss, with each victory coming by more than two runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles.
How to watch Yankees vs Orioles and game info
| Location | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Saturday, September 20, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, MASN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (16-9, 3.11 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Tomoyuki Sugano (10-8, 4.39 ERA) |
Yankees vs Orioles latest injuries
Yankees vs Orioles weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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