We’re in uncharted waters here, football bettors.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 0-2 entering Week 3 — something that hasn’t happened to this storied franchise since Patrick Mahomes became QB1 in KC.
Kansas City heads to New Jersey for a Sunday Night Football matchup with the New York Giants. The opening SNF odds and early line movement don’t exactly paint a picture of positivity for Mahomes & Co.
Here are my leans and early Chiefs vs. Giants predictions and NFL picks for September 21.
Chiefs vs Giants predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early SNF spread pick: Kansas City -5.5 (-118)
I’ll lean to the Kansas City Chiefs below the key number of -6, but many books have already jumped to that position.
KC’s offense is lacking the downfield punch, with this receiving corps missing some key weapons. I will say, the Chiefs have taken on two very good opponents to start 2025.
First, there was a neutral-site game against the Chargers in Brazil, then a hard-fought Super Bowl rematch with the Eagles. I don’t want to discount KC too much, as the New York Giants are nowhere near the level of those opponents.
New York was able to expose a rotten Dallas defense with a banged-up secondary in Week 2, but solving Steve Spagnuolo will be much tougher for Russell Wilson and maligned OC Mike Kafka.
Kansas City brings blitz from all over the place and backs that up with man-heavy schemes. Wilson is great against zone coverage but sees a significant dip against man-to-man. Those long bombs won’t be there in Week 3.
Early SNF total pick: Under 44.5 (-105)
New York has an above-average front seven and can get pressure on the passer. Despite giving up 40 points in the overtime loss to Dallas, the Giants did an OK job on Dak Prescott, but got beat up on the ground.
Luckily for the G-Men, the Chiefs can’t run. Kansas City is getting little from the ground game, rating 28th in EPA per handoff. And without the threat of deeper passing strikes, this KC playbook is getting easier to gameplan for.
As for this Chiefs defense, it looked much better against the Eagles this past Sunday than in Week 1 — especially at slowing the pass. Kansas City just couldn’t stop Philly’s run game.
New York won’t get the same explosive plays as Week 2 and may have to shorten throws and go run-heavy if the Kansas City pass rush gets going. Wilson has been sacked five times along with six QB hits, feeling the 11th-highest pressure rate per dropback through two games.
I’m leaning Under, even with this total jumping from 43.5 to 44.5 points.
Chiefs vs Giants odds
- Chiefs vs. Giants spread: Giants +5.5
- Chiefs vs. Giants moneyline: Chiefs -270, Giants +220
- Chiefs vs. Giants Over/Under: 44.5
How to watch Chiefs vs Giants
- Chiefs vs. Giants matchup
- Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025, 8:20 p.m. ET
- City: East Rutherford, NJ
- Venue: MetLife Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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