The Seattle Mariners’ offense struggles have been well documented this season, but a recent stretch has seen them win five out of their last seven games.
Seattle will now head to Houston, where it has had a great deal of trouble over the years. Find out how this affects our Mariners vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks on Friday, May 3.
Mariners vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Astros moneyline (-112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Despite their latest run of wins, the Seattle Mariners remain a middling group offensively. In fact, they've posted a very poor 76 wRC+ over the last week and have relied on their excellent pitching to get them into the win column.
Seattle has done well to look even worse at the plate during this hot streak, striking out in an unsightly 33.8% of plate appearances. The M's now run into Houston Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco, who has struck out six or more in three of his five starts.
On the flip side, George Kirby will once again be asked to pitch exceptionally if the Mariners want to have any chance tonight. Like many of Seattle’s arms, he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. While that tends to work inside the friendly confines of T-Mobile Field, the home/road splits continue to be damning for the young right-hander.
Kirby owns a 5.00 ERA in two road starts this year and his ERA is now 0.81 runs higher away from Seattle for his career. The Astros hold great marks against power pitchers like Kirby and on the whole have looked so much better offensively since eliminating Jose Abreu from the equation, ranking second in wRC+ over the last week of play.
I like Houston to get to Kirby and ride Blanco to the win.
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Mariners vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Astros moneyline
Ronel Blanco 7+ strikeouts
Joey Loperfido 2+ total bases
Right-handed starters have struck out seven or more Mariners in five of their last six starts, and Blanco himself has hit this number twice this season, including last time out in Colorado, where he recorded eight in 5 2/3 frames. Seattle is punching out nearly 34% of the time over the last week and I expect this trend to continue at Minute Maid Park tonight.
I'll also take touted rookie Joey Loperfido to continue his hot start at the big-league level. The rookie has feasted on right-handers to start his MLB career and is slashing .382./.488./588 as a whole.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mariners vs Astros odds
Mariners vs Astros live odds
Mariners vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-210) | Houston -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Seattle +100 | Houston -120
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-125)
Mariners vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Astros opened up around -120, but this game has quickly settled in close to a pick'em.
- The Mariners have accounted for just 34% of the cash wagered on the moneyline at DraftKings, compared to 47% of the bets.
- The total has fallen from the opening line of 8.5 to 8.0 as of writing, with steady action on the Under.
- The Under has been a favorite of bettors, taking on 80% of tickets and 95% of the handle.
Mariners vs Astros trend
The Astros have covered the first five innings run line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.21 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros
Mariners vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Friday, 5-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Root Sports, Space City Network |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | George Kirby (3-2, 4.18 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Ronel Blanco (3-0, 1.65 ERA) |
Mariners vs Astros latest injuries
Mariners vs Astros weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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