I stacked another winning day last night with +2.72 units and am looking to make it three in a row today on a short Thursday slate that still has tons of MLB player prop potential.
Esmerlyn Valdez is the best rookie hitter in baseball and will see plenty of Rhett Lowder and Cincinnati's lefty relievers today at GABP. He joins our card that already includes fellow unsung names like Chase Meidroth and Andruw Monasterio.
These are my favorite MLB home run props for Thursday, July 30.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Chase Meidroth |
+1100 |
 Andruw Monasterio |
+546 |
 Esmerlyn Valdez |
+356 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +33481 |
Home run prediction: Chase Meidroth (+1100)
This matinee might have the best home run matchup on the board. New York Yankees starter Ryan Weathers is one of the hardest-hit pitchers on today's slate, and his home run luck could finally run out against Chase Meidroth at a massive price.
Weathers has been especially vulnerable to right-handed hitters, with 29 of the 35 home runs he has allowed coming in righty-on-righty matchups. That's where I'm finding value today.
Meidroth is slugging .564 over the last two weeks, just 17 points behind Chicago White Sox leader Munetaka Murakami. His 44% hard-hit rate is the real deal, and his .398 xwOBA ranks second on the club over that stretch, suggesting this isn't just a hot streak.
The middle-of-the-order bat already has three hits in this series, all of them for extra bases. The Yankees' bullpen has also shown some cracks, allowing seven runs and three home runs over the first two games.
On a short slate, this is the type of long shot I'm willing to back. I'd play it down to +750.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, Chicago Sports Network
Home run prediction: Andruw Monasterio (+546)
Let's take another big swing, this time at Sutter Health Park, where the ball flies, and the Athletics' pitching staff is hanging on by a thread. Mason Barnett is making his first start of the season after working in a bulk relief role.
The rotation injuries continue to pile up with Luis Severino, JT Ginn, Jeffrey Springs, and Gunnar Hoglund all sidelined. Barnett is a home-run-prone arm with just a 33% ground-ball rate and will eventually hand things over to a bullpen that owns an MLB-worst 8.14 ERA over the last two weeks.
Andruw Monasterio crushes left-handed pitching and more than holds his own against righties. With three left-handed relievers available in the Athletics' bullpen, he should see favorable matchups throughout the game. He already took Jose Suarez deep in extra innings last night.
Monasterio also leads the Boston Red Sox with a .714 slugging percentage over the last two weeks, while his .511 wOBA ranks sixth in baseball during that span.
There should be plenty of balls leaving the yard at Sutter Health Park today, and Monasterio's hot bat is a play down to +450.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, NESN
Home run prediction: Esmerlyn Valdez (+356)
This price could easily be closer to +250, and it already is at some books. That's what happens when you combine the home-run boost of Great American Ballpark with a matchup against Rhett Lowder.
Rookie Pittsburgh Pirates slugger Esmerlyn Valdez is a human weapon who can handle both sides of the plate and launch baseballs 110 mph. He leads MLB in barrel rate at 26.9% (min. 50 PA) and owns a higher slugging percentage than Yordan Alvarez. His 34% HR/FB rate ranks second in baseball.
He is still available around 10/1 for NL Rookie of the Year, but has played half as many games as St. Louis' JJ Wetherholt, so there is still value in the market.
The Reds could be down to just four bullpen arms today, with two of them being left-handed. That creates plenty of opportunities for the man missile against Lowder and the Cincinnati bullpen.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Reds.TV
- HR picks: 27-145, -14.78 units
Best home run combo for July 30
| Chase Meidroth |
Trade Now +33481 |
| Andruw Monasterio |
|
| Esmerlyn Valdez |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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