I stacked another winning day last night with +2.72 units and am looking to make it three in a row today on a short Thursday slate that still has tons of MLB player prop potential.
The Chicago White Sox have gotten to the New York Yankees' bullpen this week, and Chase Meidroth — at this price and in this form — is impossible to leave off the card. The Boston Red Sox face a reliever making his first start of the year at Sacramento's launching pad, and the visiting bats get a big boost as a result.
These are my favorite MLB home run props for Thursday, July 30.
MLB home run props for today
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Chase Meidroth
Andruw Monasterio
Home run prediction: Chase Meidroth (+1100)
This matinee might have the best home run matchup on the board. New York Yankees starter Ryan Weathers is one of the hardest-hit pitchers on today's slate, and his home run luck could finally run out against Chase Meidroth at a massive price.
Weathers has been especially vulnerable to right-handed hitters, with 29 of the 35 home runs he has allowed coming in righty-on-righty matchups. That's where I'm finding value today.
Meidroth is slugging .564 over the last two weeks, just 17 points behind Chicago White Sox leader Munetaka Murakami. His 44% hard-hit rate is the real deal, and his .398 xwOBA ranks second on the club over that stretch, suggesting this isn't just a hot streak.
The middle-of-the-order bat already has three hits in this series, all of them for extra bases. The Yankees' bullpen has also shown some cracks, allowing seven runs and three home runs over the first two games.
On a short slate, this is the type of long shot I'm willing to back. I'd play it down to +750.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, Chicago Sports Network
Home run prediction: Andruw Monasterio (+546)
Let's take another big swing, this time at Sutter Health Park, where the ball flies, and the Athletics' pitching staff is hanging on by a thread. Mason Barnett is making his first start of the season after working in a bulk relief role.
The rotation injuries continue to pile up with Luis Severino, JT Ginn, Jeffrey Springs, and Gunnar Hoglund all sidelined. Barnett is a home-run-prone arm with just a 33% ground-ball rate and will eventually hand things over to a bullpen that owns an MLB-worst 8.14 ERA over the last two weeks.
Andruw Monasterio crushes left-handed pitching and more than holds his own against righties. With three left-handed relievers available in the Athletics' bullpen, he should see favorable matchups throughout the game. He already took Jose Suarez deep in extra innings last night.
Monasterio also leads the Boston Red Sox with a .714 slugging percentage over the last two weeks, while his .511 wOBA ranks sixth in baseball during that span.
There should be plenty of balls leaving the yard at Sutter Health Park today, and Monasterio's hot bat is a play down to +450.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, NESN
- HR picks: 27-145, -14.78 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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