It's a home-run, slump-busting day for me as last week's heater has turned into a cold snap. That's the world of betting on daily home runs, where one multi-hit day changes the tide.
There are 12 starting pitchers today who rank in the Bottom 50 in BlastContact% this year, but with very few great-hitting settings, fading pitchers and bullpens today might be the best approach for MLB player props.
Despite one run scored last night, I'm going back to Coors and hoping Fernando Tatis can snap his own HR drought, and fading one of the worst BlastCon% pitchers in baseball indoors in Miami for a big price.
These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, April 22.
Best MLB home run props today
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Fernando Tatis Jr. (+400)
I had this start circled for five days. Tomoyuki Sugano owns a sub-4.00 ERA, but his xERA is closer to 8.00.
He’s been wildly lucky while allowing the eighth-worst BlastCon% among starters, and he’s posted one of the worst HR/9 rates over the last two seasons.
In short, the San Diego Padres lineup is a great place to look for dingers on Wednesday at Coors Field, especially with poor hitting weather elsewhere.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is +400 to go deep with a fair price around +330, per Covers projections powered by THE BAT. He’s the best +EV home run on the board this morning.
It’s surprising he hasn’t gone deep yet, but that’s why the price is discounted. He leads the team with a 27.5% BlastCon% rate, and it feels like a matter of time before that breaks through.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Padres.TV
Otto Lopez (+1120)
I’m going four-digit hunting with the No. 2 hitter in the Miami Marlins lineup in a controlled environment with a plus-plus matchup.
Kyle Leahy has the second-worst BlastCon% among MLB starters this year, and it caught up to him last time out when Houston took him deep three times indoors. Among pitchers with at least 10 innings, he ranks dead last in BlastCon%.
Miami isn’t known for home-run power, but Otto Lopez stands out at a massive price. He’s being priced like a No. 8 hitter with no pop, but he’s among the team leaders in power metrics and sits well above league average in key home-run indicators.
This may be the best pitching matchup for dingers on the board. The St. Louis Cardinals could also be without key bullpen arms, and they already rank 29th in xFIP among all MLB bullpens, adding to the appeal.
- Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Cardinals.TV
- HR picks: 5-38, -7.4 units
Today’s HR parlay
 Fernando Tatis Jr. |
Bet Now +30863 |
 Otto Lopez |
|
 Shane Langeliers |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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