Betting home runs can be a rollercoaster, as I have dug myself out of an 11-unit hole in two days on the backs of just two long balls. It's good to be back in the black. Wednesday looks like another great day for home runs and MLB player props.
In addition to running it back with Pete Alonso and looking at a handful of Pirates batters vs. arguably the best home-run matchup in all of baseball, I'm grabbing one of baseball's pre-eminent power hitters in Yordan Alvarez at an appealing price.
These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, April 15.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Pete Alonso |
+390 |
 Ryan O'Hearn |
+730 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
+360 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +16763 |
Pete Alonso (+390)
Pete Alonso was on the card yesterday at the same price, and I’m running it back vs. a lefty, playing with house money in another strong-hitting environment. As mentioned yesterday, the Polar Bear boasts elite Blast Contact% numbers, measuring swing speed and barrels — a great indicator of home run upside.
Eduardo Rodriguez has been great since the WBC, but it’s fair to question how sustainable it is with a very low BABIP and higher expected metrics. He’s typically a fly-ball pitcher who has been keeping the ball on the ground — those long fly balls could be coming soon.
The setting checks out again in a series that’s already produced 23 runs and nine home runs. This is another +EV Alonso spot with a fair price around +330, and he’s already taken Rodriguez deep in his career.
- Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, Dbacks.TV
Ryan O'Hearn (+790)
Jake Irvin might be the best arm to fade on Wednesday. He led all starters in home runs allowed and HR/9 last year and is trending that way again. Almost every Pittsburgh Pirates bat projects as +EV, but I’m landing on cleanup hitter Ryan O'Hearn at a big +730.
Oneil Cruz still projects as the top option at +390, but I want a little more meat on the bone in a matchup where Pittsburgh could leave the yard multiple times. The fair price on O’Hearn sits closer to +600, and he brings some of the best barrel rates on the team.
A round robin with O'Hearn, Cruz, and Brandon Lowe at +420 might be the best way to attack this spot, with double-digit winds and strong-hitting temperatures lining up again today.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Nationals.TV
Yordan Alvarez (+360)
This could be the highest-scoring game on the slate, with a pair of questionable starters pitching in front of struggling bullpens.
Yordan Alvarez may be facing a soft-tossing lefty in Jose Quintana, who is coming off an injury, but he has reverse splits and has crushed southpaws to a 1.094 OPS since 2024.
The Colorado Rockies bullpen was forced in early last night after just eight outs, and not every arm will be available today. Combined, these two bullpens have five losses over the last seven days and 12 on the season.
This game could get loose, and I’m happy to back the best hitter in the series at a slightly discounted price due to the lefty-lefty matchup.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, SCHN
- HR picks: 4-26, +1.0 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Pete Alonso |
Bet Now +16763 |
| Ryan O'Hearn |
|
| Yordan Alvarez |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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