There are some games to avoid on Dinger Tuesday as a big patch of rain is heading to the Northeast today, but despite the storm clouds, there are still some great home run and MLB player prop spots on the board today.
I have two starting pitchers circled early. The ball could be flying in Colorado with one of the worst starting pitching matchups of the second half, while the Marlins might be able to send Tatsuya Imai to the Houston bullpen with another bad outing.
These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, July 21.
Best MLB home run props today
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Curtis Mead
Liam Hicks
Home run pick: Curtis Mead (+420)
The Nationals' lineup is loaded with power, and over the last 30 days, it isn't James Wood or CJ Abrams leading the team in slugging. It is Luis Garcia — but Curtis Mead is right there behind him in second.
He is 8-for-16 after the break with four extra-base hits, and this should have a fair price of +350 at Coors Field vs. Michael Lorenzen.
The Colorado starter has allowed just one dinger over his last four starts, but he has the worst BlastCont% among all MLB starters today (last 30 days), and the homers could be on their way tonight.
Looking back over the last two seasons, only two other starters today have a worse HR/9 than Lorenzen. Ball Park Pal has this as the second-best HR setting on the board today.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Nationals.TV
Home run pick: Liam Hicks (+710)
Let's hit value town in Houston, where Liam Hicks finds himself batting cleanup after launching his 14th homer off Houston's starter last night.
Hicks is crushing right-handed pitching with an .884 OPS, and 93% of his home runs this season have come against righties. Outside of the Nationals, the Marlins might have the best home run matchup on the board against Tatsuya Imai and his shaky numbers.
The right-hander ranks among the Bottom 25 qualified starters in HR/9 this season, and those numbers have only gotten worse over the last 30 days. There is plenty of strikeout upside with the first-year starter, but his MLB numbers haven't come close to matching what he posted in Japan's NPB.
This could be his final turn in the rotation, and the Nationals already got a look at him in his last outing, so the familiarity edge belongs to the hitters.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Space City Home Network, Marlins.TV
- HR picks: 21-133, -23.63 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
