Please, Baby Jesus, give me the strength to find some home run props today. The weather is getting cold for the seemingly third time this season, but there are some great matchup spots to target for dingers and MLB player props.
The Orioles could be batting around, facing a bullpen arm as a starter, and the Pirates have to take advantage of one of the worst starters in BlastContact percentage. The weather is turning, but there are some duds on the mound and bad bullpens to pick on for Dinger Tuesday.
These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, April 28.
Best MLB home run props today
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Pete Alonso
Oneil Cruz
Pete Alonso (+490)
It’s a good day to back the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso, on Dinger Tuesday at a price near +500.
The weather is shifting again, but Camden Yards remains a solid setting for right-handed power with the wind blowing out. Alonso also carries a 33% opposite-field fly-ball rate, and Camden has one of the shallowest right-field fences, per THE BAT.
He’ll face Kai-Wei Teng, who is making his first start after working in a multi-inning relief role. His MLB track record isn't impressive, and his command has been inconsistent.
The Baltimore Orioles could also see plenty of a vulnerable Houston Astros bullpen, which boosts the outlook for power. Houston's relievers own the worst ERA in baseball. Alonso also homered off Teng in the only meeting between the two.
The fair price here sits around +430.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, Space City Home Network
Oneil Cruz (+370)
I’m getting square, but I’ll happily take a potential five-AB leadoff hitter in a strong matchup against Kyle Leahy, who ranks among the worst pitchers in baseball by Blast Contact%.
Only one starter has a worse mark, and Leahy has been getting crushed by left-handed hitters.
If swing speed is your angle, Oneil Cruz fits — he owns the second-fastest swing in baseball and is a prime target in plus matchups. The setting also helps, with temperatures in the 70s and winds blowing out to center.
If Leahy exits early, Cruz will see a St. Louis Cardinals bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA and lacks strong left-handed options.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Cardinals.TV
- HR picks: 6-47, -14.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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