No Sunday scaries for us this afternoon, as we find a way to keep the weekend vibes rolling by backing a few guys to hit some nukes!
These are my top looks to leave the yard, featuring Yordan Alvarez and Pete Crow-Armstrong in today's MLB player props.
Here are my favorite MLB picks and home run predictions for Sunday, July 26.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Muneataka Murakami |
+244 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
+205 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
+379 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +4241 |
Home run pick: Munetaka Murakami (+244)
Boots will be grounded for Munetaka Murakami bobblehead day, as the entire city will be flocking to the South Side to get their hands on the newest slugger's bobblehead.
Murakami enters Sunday with not only the top rating on Batters-Box, but also nearly 92% arsenal coverage against Houston Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco. Today marks his 40th elite rating of the season.
Through his previous 39 elite-rated games, the Chicago White Sox slugger has left the yard 30.77% of the time. He has yet to homer since returning from his injury before the All-Star break, but today feels like the day.
Blanco is coming off a rough first start of the season and currently owns a 7.71 ERA. Looking at the last three seasons, Batters-Box gives him the third-worst pitcher rating, while also grading him poorly in both ground ball rate and matchup ISO.
Murakami has been seeing the ball well, already racking up multiple doubles since returning. The nuke feels overdue.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, SCHN
Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+205)
Yup, I found two guys I like to leave the yard in today's Astros/White Sox matchup. Yordan Alvarez has not cooled off all season, and now he gets Eric Fedde, a pitcher he has 100% arsenal coverage against.
Through 31 elite-rated games this season, the Astros slugger has homered over 35% of the time. Looking at the last three seasons, he has also gone deep in 26.26% of his 99 elite-rated road games.
Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Alvarez owns a .520 batting average, 1.040 SLG, 1.640 OPS, and .520 ISO. During that stretch, he has generated nearly a 60% hard hit rate and a 22.7% barrel rate.
On the other side, Fedde has allowed over a 51% hard hit rate across his last three starts. The last 30 left-handed hitters he has faced own a .613 xSLG, .352 xwOBA, and a 55.3% hard hit rate against him.
I'm very confident at least one of these two sluggers leaves the yard this afternoon on the South Side.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, SCHN
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+379)
Chicago heavy, unintentionally, I promise, but Chicago Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong finds himself in a mouthwatering matchup against Pittsburgh Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft.
Similar to Yordan Alvarez, Crow-Armstrong owns an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset while covering 100% of Ashcraft's pitch mix. However, in the default ratings that span the last three seasons, he earns a strong rating.
Through 45 strongly rated games, he has left the yard 33.33% of the time. This season, despite posting an elite rating, that number sits at just 20%.
Across his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Crow-Armstrong owns a .660 SLG, 1.127 OPS, .341 ISO, and a 10.3% barrel rate. As for Ashcraft, the last 60 left-handed hitters he has faced have generated a 58% hard hit rate, 18.4% barrel rate, and just a 31.6% ground ball rate. Those lefties also own a .996 xSLG, .425 xwOBA, and .364 ISO against him.
Crow-Armstrong might have my favorite home run matchup on the entire slate.
- Time:1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MARQ, SNP
- HR picks: 86-312, +7.70 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Munetaka Murakami |
Bet Now <<+4241>> |
| Yordan Alvarez |
|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
