Let's end the weekend on a high note!
These are my top looks to leave the yard this Sunday afternoon, featuring Yordan Alvarez showing value in the MLB player props.
Here are my favorite MLB picks & home run props for July 19.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Heriberto Hernandez |
+335 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
+209 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
+375 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +6504 |
Home run pick: Heriberto Hernandez (+335)
Miami Marlins outfielder Heriberto Hernandez finds himself in a great spot to leave the yard against Milwaukee Brewers southpaw Robert Gasser.
Hernandez enters Sunday with an elite Batters-Box rating, along with over 75% arsenal coverage against Gasser. The Marlins slugger has been crushing left handed pitching, posting a .759 SLG, 1.126 OPS, and .444 ISO, while producing a 51.2% hard hit rate and 16.3% barrel rate.
At home, Gasser has struggled against right handed hitters, allowing a 68.3% elevation rate and a 35.7% hard hit rate. Over his last 60 batters faced, opponents have elevated the baseball 74.5% of the time while posting a .355 xBA, .544 xSLG, and .343 xwOBA.
With how well Hernandez has been seeing the baseball, I'm fully expecting extra bases this afternoon, with a strong chance one leaves the yard.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BREW, MIAM
Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+209)
Give me the big fella, the highest rated hitter on the slate over at Batters-Box. He also owns 100% arsenal coverage against Brandon Young.
Yep, it's Yordan Alvarez day.
When Alvarez has earned an elite rating this season, he has left the yard 35% of the time across a 25 game sample. The Houston Astros slugger hasn't slowed down one bit, batting .385 with a .923 SLG, 1.390 OPS, and .538 ISO, while producing a 63.6% hard hit rate and 22.7% barrel rate over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
Meanwhile, the last 30 left-handed hitters Young has faced have generated a 57.1% hard hit rate, 9.5% barrel rate, and 76.2% elevation rate. They also own a .497 xBA, 1.127 xSLG, and .371 xwOBA.
Yeah...give me Yordan Alvarez to leave the yard this afternoon.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, MASN
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+375)
First of all...what is a Zebby? Somebody let me know.
Anywho, Pete Crow-Armstrong finds himself in a fantastic spot against Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews this afternoon. He enters Sunday with an elite rating and 100% arsenal coverage against Matthews.
Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Crow-Armstrong owns a .667 SLG, 1.117 OPS, and .355 ISO, while producing nearly a 40% hard-hit rate and a 14.3% barrel rate.
Matthews has struggled against left-handed hitters in recent outings. Across the last 30 lefties he has faced, opponents have generated a 50% hard-hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate, and a 28% line drive rate. They also own an .852 xSLG and .390 xwOBA against him.
While his recent elevation rate has been a bit low, the quality of contact he's allowing suggests hitters are due to cash in with a long ball.
- Time: 1:20 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MARQ, MNNT
- HR picks: 81-283, +10.9 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Heriberto Hernandez |
Bet Now +6504 |
| Yordan Alvarez |
|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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