It's another busy slate across the big leagues, and that means more value in my MLB player prop home run analysis.
Today's picks include Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, and Junior Caminero.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, June 27.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Bryce Harper |
+341 |
 Freddie Freeman |
+422 |
 Junior Caminero |
+278 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +8601 |
Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+341)
Bryce Harper is tearing the cover off the baseball right now. He's hit three home runs over his last seven games while carrying a ridiculous .448 ISO, 54.2% hard-hit rate, and .646 xSLG during that span.
Harper has consistently been driving the ball with authority and looks primed for another big swing tonight.
The Philadelphia Phillies slugger draws a favorable matchup against New York Mets starter Christian Scott, who surrendered three home runs in his last outing.
Scott has also struggled to keep the ball in the park at Citi Field, allowing 1.72 home runs per nine innings at home compared to just 0.89 overall this season.
I'll play this pick up to +300.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Home run pick: Junior Caminero (+278)
It'll be difficult to find a hotter hitter in baseball right now than Junior Caminero.
The Tampa Bay Rays slugger has blasted five home runs over his last seven games while carrying a ridiculous 61.9% hard-hit rate and 23.8% barrel rate during the past week.
He's consistently squaring up the baseball and generating elite power.
The Arizona Diamondbacks hand the ball to rookie Jose Cabrera, who is making just his second major league appearance. Facing one of the hottest power hitters in baseball is a difficult assignment, especially with Caminero producing this type of contact quality.
When a hitter is barreling the ball this consistently, he's capable of leaving any yard.
I'll play this pick confidently to +200.
- Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, DBacks.TV
Home run pick: Freddie Freeman (+422)
Freddie Freeman may have just one home run over his last six games, but the underlying metrics suggest another one is coming. The Dodgers first baseman owns a 73.3% hard-hit rate, a .286 ISO, and a 16.3-degree launch angle during that span, consistently driving the ball with authority.
He'll face Randy Vasquez, who has allowed 40.6% of his contact in the air over his last two starts while surrendering a 46.2% hard-hit rate across the last month. That's a dangerous combination against one of baseball's hottest hitters.
I'll play this pick up to +350.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB Network
- HR picks: 12-69, -11.75 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Bryce Harper |
Bet Now +8601 |
| Freddie Freeman |
|
| Junior Caminero |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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