Happy Monday!
A new week is here, and I'm ready to get it going with a trio of MLB player props in the home run market — highlighted by Willson Contreras.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for July 27.
Best MLB home run props today
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Willson Contreras
Corbin Carroll
Home run pick: Willson Contreras (+291)
Athletics RHP Jack Perkins — the fourth-worst-rated pitcher on Batters-Box's current season dataset this evening — has been getting torched by right-handed hitters over his last few starts.
Across the last 30 righties he has faced, he owns a 3.00 HR/9, 7.50 ERA, and just a 27.3% ground ball rate. Those hitters have produced a .418 xBA, .676 xSLG, and .391 xwOBA against him. Overall, at home this season, right-handed hitters are generating a 38% hard hit rate and a 74% elevation rate.
Enter Boston Red Sox slugger Willson Contreras. One of the hottest and most consistent bats in the lineup, Contreras has posted a .320 batting average, .520 SLG, and .953 OPS over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, while generating a 46.7% hard hit rate and 13.3% barrel rate.
I love everything about this matchup, especially with the game being played in Sacramento, where temperatures are expected to be in the mid 90s. It sets up as an ideal environment for the ball to carry.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, NESN
Home run pick: Corbin Carroll (+344)
The heart and soul of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Corbin Carroll, enters Monday in a great spot against Pittsburgh Pirates righty Mitch Keller, who owns a poor pitcher rating on Batters-Box along with a poorly rated matchup ISO.
Carroll carries an elite rating on Batters-Box and boasts one of the highest arsenal coverage marks among all elite-rated hitters on the slate, covering 90.4% of Keller's pitch mix.
Despite Carroll's cold stretch over the last few weeks, I think he is beyond due for a big game. Over his last 30 plate appearances against RHP, he has generated a 58% hard hit rate and 21.1% barrel rate.
He also owns a .500 SLG, .767 OPS, and .308 ISO. When you're hitting the ball that hard, the results will come.
Keller has also been getting hit hard by left-handed batters. Over the last 60 lefties he has faced, they have produced a 44.7% hard hit rate, 12.8% barrel rate, and just a 21.3% ground ball rate. They also own a .382 xBA, .631 xSLG, and .419 xwOBA against him.
Hopefully Corbin sends one over the fence, or even better, legs out a little league home run with his speed. Hey, his triple is at 15-to-1 tonight. Shrug emoji.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNP, ARID
- HR picks: 87-314, +8.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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