You can't cash home run tickets all week if you don't start on Monday!
These are my top looks to leave the yard, including a double-dose of Kyle Schwarber moonshots to go along with Ben Rice and Colt Keith in these MLB player props.
Here are my favorite MLB picks & home run predictions for Monday, July 20.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Ben Rice |
+281 |
 Colt Keith |
+415 |
 Kyle Schwarber 2+ HR |
+1400 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +29332 |
Home run pick: Ben Rice (+281)
New York Yankees slugger Ben Rice draws Braxton Ashcraft this evening, a matchup where he covers over 91% of his arsenal according to Batters-Box.
Ashcraft has allowed left-handed hitters to do just about whatever they want as of late. Over his last 60 batters faced, lefties have generated a 74.3% elevation rate, 57.1% hard-hit rate, and 14.3% barrel rate. During that stretch, they own a .407 xBA, .825 xSLG, .350 xwOBA, and .319 ISO.
Rice has been crushing right-handed pitching recently as well. Over his last 30 at-bats against righties, he owns a .308 BA, .692 SLG, 1.092 OPS, and .384 ISO. During that span, he has produced a 66.7% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate.
This is an excellent spot for the All-Star to leave the yard.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, SNP
Home run pick: Colt Keith (+415)
Wind blowing out and Jameson Taillon on the mound? Yeah, we need to back a Tiger to go Ya-Ya, and Colt Keith is our guy.
The Detroit Tigers third baseman carries an elite rating on Batters-Box’s current season dataset while covering over 61% of Taillon’s pitch mix. The expected data suggests that arsenal coverage should actually be higher, which is why I am leaning heavily into Keith this evening.
Plus, he has been one of the hottest hitters in the Tigers lineup. Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Keith owns a .654 SLG, 1.021 OPS, .428 wOBA, and .346 ISO, while producing a 47.4% hard hit rate and 15.8% barrel rate.
Taillon has struggled against left-handed bats this season, allowing a 75% elevation rate and 15% barrel rate. Lefties have posted a .553 xSLG, .407 xwOBA, and .315 ISO against him.
At that price, it is hard to pass up on a hitter who is absolutely crushing the baseball.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MARQ, DSN
Home run pick: Kyle Schwarber 2+ Home Runs (+1400)
Kyle Schwarber finds himself in a mouthwatering spot tonight, and the books appear to be overcompensating for the matchup. His home run prop is currently well under 2-to-1 and will likely continue to drop as we get closer to first pitch.
However, Schwarber carries an elite rating on Batters-Box while holding an 82.5% arsenal coverage matchup against Dodgers right-hander Emmet Sheehan. Across 107 elite ratings over the last three years, Schwarber has homered nearly 35% of the time.
The Phillies slugger has also been generating nearly 60% hard contact over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, and I think he is an ideal option for not just one, but two nukes this evening.
Sheehan has struggled against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a 47.4% hard-hit rate and a 73.7% elevation rate to his last 30 faced. Those hitters have produced a .546 xSLG during that stretch.
If you want to play it safe, take the one, but there is far more value in chasing two.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
- HR picks: 81-287, +9.8 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Ben Rice |
Bet Now +29332 |
| Colt Keith |
|
| Kyle Schwarber |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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