There was a little optimism to close out the week with a winning Friday, but there's still a lot of home-run work to do, and this is a big week to crush some MLB player props.
Nobody is popping off more on the projections than Trent Grisham today, indoors vs. Jack Leiter, while Victor Caratini looks to do some damage against Luis Castillo.
Best MLB home run props today
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Trent Grisham
Victor Caratini
Trent Grisham (+490)
No player is showing more expected value today at Covers than Trent Grisham at +490. He projects for 0.23 home runs, with the price implying 0.19.
He could see five at-bats hitting leadoff and has gone deep twice over the last seven days. The matchup is favorable against Jack Leiter, a fly-ball arm who allows some of the best launch angles in baseball.
Grisham is also elite at squaring the ball up, leading the New York Yankees in that metric while ranking second in Blast Contact%. Only two players in baseball currently have a higher square-up rate.
On a small slate with poor weather expected on the East Coast, an indoor environment stands out as the best place to target home runs on Monday.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rangers Sports Network, YES
Victor Caratini (+920)
Let’s take a bigger swing with the projected cleanup hitter for the Minnesota Twins in a strong matchup. The Covers projections like the Over in this game, and suggest the Minnesota offense is being undervalued.
Victor Caratini is a switch-hitter who is better from the left side, and the Seattle Mariners bullpen may be without both of its left-handed arms. He’s also very familiar with Luis Castillo, with 23 career at-bats against him.
Castillo may be on the back end of his prime. He’s been inefficient this year, allowing 31 hits in just 23 innings, and projects as a pitcher who could give up 25-30 home runs over the full season.
The fair price for a Caratini home run sits around +770, and double-digit winds blowing out only add to the appeal. Kody Clemens (+520) and Josh Bell (+590) also project as +EV in this game.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Twins.TV, Mariners.TV
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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