A busy evening in the big leagues offers intriguing value in the home run market, with several stars on my radar.
My MLB player props will focus on Jackson Chourio, Oneil Cruz, and Tyler Soderstrom.
Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, June 5.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jackson Chourio |
+292 |
 Oneil Cruz |
+388 |
 Tyler Soderstrom |
+496 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +11625 |
Home run pick: Jackson Chourio (+292)
Jackson Chourio is one of the hottest hitters in baseball at the moment. He owns a .765 xSLG over the last week, including three home runs during that span, while possessing a 44.4% hard-hit rate. If we take a deeper dive, the power is very evident. Chourio also has a .524 ISO across his previous six games.
He'll face Colorado Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner tonight. The starter recently returned from the IL and has made just one start since late April, so we'll look at his season as a whole.
Feltner owns a 6.35 xERA and has allowed a 46.9% hard-hit rate. He's also surrendered 38.3% of his contact through the air, while carrying a concerning 16.1% HR/FB rate.
That's an appealing matchup for Chourio, who owns a 33.3% HR/FB rate over the last week and continues to generate loud contact consistently.
With this game taking place at Coors Field — one of the most favorable home-run environments in baseball — the conditions only strengthen the case.
I'll take this pick up to +200.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: Oneil Cruz (+388)
Oneil Cruz is consistently making loud contact at the moment. Aside from his three bombs in the last six games, he owns an astounding 23.1% barrel rate during that span while carrying a ridiculous .912 xSLG.
Cruz has also slugged above .500 against left-handed pitching this season, and he'll face Atlanta Braves southpaw Martin Perez this evening.
Perez has been getting hit, with 34.1% of the contact he's allowed against left-handed batters coming in the air, and 14.3% of those fly balls leaving the yard. That's a recipe for disaster against a hitter like Cruz, who has seen 36.4% of his fly balls against lefties land in the bleachers.
I'll play this pick up to +350.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, BravesVision
Home run pick: Tyler Soderstrom (+496)
Tyler Soderstrom is making plenty of loud contact right now, carrying a 52.6% hard-hit rate and an expected slugging percentage north of .500 over the last week. The Athletics slugger has also gone deep twice in his last six games, and the matchup is what stands out most here.
The Houston Astros hand Peter Lambert the ball, and while he hasn't allowed a home run across his last two starts, the underlying metrics suggest he's been fortunate. The right-hander has surrendered a 46.7% fly-ball rate, 46.7% hard-hit rate, and a 22.7 average launch angle during that span. Those indicators suggest opposing hitters are generating the type of contact that often turns into home runs.
Add in the short porch in left field at Daikin Park, and this matchup becomes even more appealing.
I'll take this pick up to +400.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC Sports California, Space City Home Network
- HR picks: 9-57, -12.56 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Jackson Chourio |
Bet Now +11625 |
| Oneil Cruz |
|
| Tyler Soderstrom |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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