Friday is here, and the MLB slate is loaded with hitters in prime spots to leave the yard.
My favorite looks and MLB player props this evening include Yandy Diaz, Samuel Basallo, and Kody Clemens.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Yandy Diaz |
+359 |
 Samuel Basallo |
+389 |
 Kody Clemens |
+437 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +11953 |
Home run pick: Yandy Diaz (+359)
One of my favorite home run looks this evening is Tampa Bay Rays slugger Yandy Diaz.
Diaz has been crushing the baseball lately against left-handed pitching. Over his last 30 plate appearances versus southpaws, he's produced a 56.5% hard-hit rate and 13% barrel rate while batting .400, with a .720 SLG, 1.187 OPS and 221 wRC+.
Tonight, the Rays star draws Los Angeles Angels left hander Sam Aldegheri, who has allowed a 61.9% fly-ball rate and 19% line-drive rate to right handed hitters this season. Those elevated contact numbers have been a consistent theme throughout his professional career.
Diaz also owns the highest arsenal coverage among Batters-Box elite-rated hitters tonight, covering 94.7% of Aldegheri's pitch mix. With the amount of hard contact Díaz is generating and the amount of elevation Aldegheri is allowing, this is a matchup I have to be all over.
If you're looking to add another home run sprinkle from this game, I do not hate the idea of Junior Caminero leaving the yard as well.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, RAYS
Home run pick: Samuel Basallo (+389)
Baltimore Orioles young slugger Samuel Basallo is a guy I am already a fan of. His hits, runs and RBI prop looks good this evening, and when I like a hitter to have success at the dish, I am always a strong advocate for sprinkling on their home run prop as well.
The 21-year-old draws San Diego Padres right hander Griffin Canning, who enters today with the one of the worst pitcher ratings on the day, according to Batters-Box.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, SDPA
Home run pick: Kody Clemens (+437)
Minnesota Twins outfielder Kody Clemens has been making a ton of hard contact lately. Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he owns a 54.2% hard-hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate, and 66.7% elevation rate while batting .379 with an .862 SLG and 1.262 OPS.
Roger's son draws St. Louis Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy, who grades poorly in hard contact and strikeout metrics on Batters-Box.
The right-hander has struggled this season against left-handed hitters, allowing 60% hard contact and a 13.7% barrel rate. Those lefties have produced a .619 xSLG and .434 xwOBA against him.
According to FanGraphs, only 14% of Leahy’s arsenal grades above league average. On the other side, Clemens owns an 84.2% arsenal coverage rating against Leahy’s pitch mix.
After an 0-for-4 day at the dish on Thursday, Clemens should be looking to bounce back this weekend and do damage against the below-average pitches Leahy will throw his way.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, CARD
- HR picks: 54-182-15, +12.8 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Yandy Diaz |
Bet Now +11953 |
| Samuel Basallo |
|
| Kody Clemens |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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