The Minnesota Twins play host to the Cleveland Guardians in the first game of this three-game set at Target Field.
My Guardians vs. Twins predictions expect a low-scoring affair in this AL Central matchup, with both lineups struggling to produce offense.
Read on for my MLB picks for Monday, May 18.
Guardians vs Twins prediction
My Guardians vs Twins best bet: Under 7.5 (-115 at Caesars)
Neither offense has fared well thus far in 2025. The power numbers are lacking on both sides, as the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins rank in the league's bottom half in runs scored per game, slugging percentage, and OPS.
Both also struggle to manufacture runs, with each side ranking in the bottom half in batting average and on-base percentage.
Cleveland’s woes at the plate will likely continue against RHP Bailey Ober, who takes the mound for Minnesota. Through 98 combined plate appearances against Ober, this current Guardians roster sport a mere .191 BA, .287 slugging percentage, and .227 weighted on-base average.
Their underlying metrics are equally poor over that stretch, producing a .201 xBA, .294 xSLG, and .231 xwOBA. On the other hand, the Twins have struggled against Cleveland's own, Logan Allen.
This current Minnesota lineup sports a .230 xBA, .361 xSLG, and .322 xwOBA through 33 combined plate appearances against the lefty.
Finally, both bullpens are capable of closing this game out. Each relief staff ranks in the Top 10 in the league in FIP, xFIP, and wins WAR.
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Caesars QuickPick: Our Guardians vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Bailey Ober Over 4.5 strikeouts
Twins moneyline
Sticking with the theme of a pitching duel, Ober is worth backing in the prop market. He ranks in the 90th percentile in chase rate and 57th percentile in whiff rate. Ober has also recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his past six starts.
The Twins outrank the Guardians in nearly every hitting and relief pitching category and will take home the win tonight.
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Guardians vs Twins odds
Guardians vs Twins live odds
Guardians vs Twins opening odds
- Moneyline: Cleveland +122 | Minnesota -145
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-189) | Minnesota -1.5 (+158)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Guardians vs Twins trend
Seven or fewer total runs have been scored in six of the past eight meetings between these teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Twins.
How to watch Guardians vs Twins and game info
| Location | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Monday, 5-19-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | CLEG, MNNT |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Logan Allen (2-2, 3.70 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher | Bailey Ober (4-1, 3.72 ERA) |
Guardians vs Twins latest injuries
Guardians vs Twins weather
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