The Cleveland Guardians and Boston Red Sox wrap up a three-game set at Fenway Park tonight.
Boston took the first two games in this series, and my Guardians vs. Red Sox predictions are betting on a sweep.
Here are my free MLB picks for this AL clash on September 3
Guardians vs Red Sox prediction
Guardians vs Red Sox best bet: Red Sox moneyline (-150)
The Boston Red Sox have won 10 of their last 13 games and defeated the Cleveland Guardians 11-7 last night. Meanwhile, the Guardians have dropped 12 of their previous 17 contests to fall below .500.
The Red Sox will use reliever Brennan Bernardino as an opener today. Bernardino does an excellent job of limiting hard contact and has a 3.08 ERA with an OBA of .202 through 49 2/3 innings.
The lefty has previously made two starts and won't pitch more than a couple of innings before giving way to a strong bullpen or prospect Kyle Harrison.
The Guardians respond with Joey Cantillo, who pitched to a 4.03 ERA in eight starts before getting demoted last month. He struggles with his control and had an ugly 6.52 ERA in two outings at Triple-A before being recalled to the bigs.
I'll give a slight pitching edge to Boston's bullpen over the inconsistent Cantillo, and I give an even bigger edge to Boston's bats when compared to Cleveland's weak-hitting lineup.
The Red Sox are sixth in the majors in OPS (.753) with that number ticking up to .777 at Fenway. Meanwhile, the Guardians are just 29th in OPS (.662). Even with star rookie Roman Anthony injuring his back last night, I'll take the home side here.
Guardians vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
The Red Sox will get the runs they need to pull away, but I don't expect a ton of scoring, despite the total sitting at 9. The Under is 33-23 in Cleveland's last 56 away games while going 39-29 in Boston's previous 68 contests at home.
This will be a bullpen game for the BoSox, and their relievers have a combined ERA of 3.38 with an OBA of .226 — both numbers good for third-best in the majors. They should have success against a punchless Guardians lineup.
Cleveland also has a solid bullpen (3.66 ERA), and Boston's lineup is missing a pair of key contributors with star rookie Roman Anthony injuring his back last night and Wilyer Abreu sidelined.
Expect Trevor Story to pick up the slack in the absence of Anthony and Abreu. The two-time Silver Slugger began the year mired in a slump but has picked up steam. He's slugging .526 since the start of July and will have the platoon advantage against Cantillo.
Guardians vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Cleveland +120 | Boston -140
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-170) | Boston -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 | Under 9.0
Guardians vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have cashed the moneyline in 47 of their last 74 games (+18.70 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Guardians vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Wednesday, September 3, 2025 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | CLEG, NESN |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Joey Cantillo (3-3, 3.93 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Brennan Bernardino (4-2, 3.08 ERA) |
Guardians vs Red Sox latest injuries
Guardians vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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