A rivalry game takes the stage for Sunday Night Baseball when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants wrap up a four-game series.
The Dodgers have already clinched at least a split in this series. L.A. won last night in a shutout victory and in the opener on Thursday, and they're sizable favorites in the MLB odds to triumph again.
September has been mostly a nightmare for the Giants. They started the month with hopes of making the postseason, but those have quickly evaporated as San Fran has won just three of its last 10 games. That renders the remainder of the season mostly meaningless, but tonight, they'll be motivated by hopes of sharing a split with a rival.
What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Giants vs Dodgers on Sunday, September 24.
Giants vs Dodgers odds
Giants vs Dodgers predictions
Things looked optimistic for Lance Lynn for a while after the Chicago White Sox traded him to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The veteran had seemingly reinvented himself, and it appeared the Dodgers had once again pulled a fast one on the rest of the league. Then September hit, and it's been a rough one.
Lynn has posted an ERA over 7.00 this month, and started things by allowing eight earned runs to the Miami Marlins. He followed up with a solid showing against the San Diego Padres, but given the historical context of the year and what we've seen lately, Lynn is closer to the former than the latter. I'll be picking on Lynn here, and I'm using Joc Pederson to do that.
Lynn's undoing this season has been the hard-hit ball, particularly his terrible barrel rate. It's in the Bottom 12% of the league, and he's been a regular victim of the home run. He's given up at least one longball in five consecutive starts, with many of those yielding multiple dingers. A significant reason for this is his ineffective fastball, which has produced a .502 slugging percentage along with 19 home runs. There are few batters more well-equipped to take advantage of this than Pederson.
Pederson leads all Giants players in hard-hit rate against the fastball at 62%. In addition to that, he's produced the third-best slugging percentage against fastballs and the third-best batting average. A bet on him here is also a bet on continued production against L.A. He's played well against them throughout his career and as of late. Although he went hitless last night, he entered the game going Over this bases total in two straight outings against the Dodgers.
Adding up everything in our favor makes this an easy play at plus money. We have a pitcher with an issue with his fastball and the hard-hit ball. In addition, we have a player who hits the pitch he has issues with harder than any of his teammates. Want one more thing to like? That hitter has great historical success against the team he's playing. Take Pederson to have a big game tonight.
My best bet: Joc Pederson Over 1.5 bases (+105)
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Giants vs Dodgers same-game parlay
We're taking tonight's best bet and going the safer route for a correlated same-game parlay.
The Giants should be able to get players on bases. There's also a solid stable of good fastball hitters at the top of the lineup. With that in mind, the +140 price on Pederson to record an RBI is far too appealing to turn down.
Lastly, I'm wrapping things up with the Giants run line spread. It's tough to make too much of what we'll see from the San Fran pitch staff tonight, as it appears to be a bullpen game. However, this is more of a fade of Lynn than anything else.
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Giants vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Giants will use an opener tonight in the form of Ryan Walker. Walker has been excellent in his first season at the major league level, with an expected ERA in the top 8% of the league. That said, we'll only see two innings from him as this turns into a full bullpen game.
Making tails or heads on what to expect from the rest of the rotation is challenging, but we know the bullpen is well rested. With that in mind, It's hard for me to have much conviction on one side here. I talked about taking the Giants on the run-line above in my same-game parlay as a fade of Lynn. That still holds here, but there needs to be more value in that number to play it alone.
I projected this total at 8.5, and we have one widely available at 9. With that in mind, I'd lean towards the Under.
I expect the Giants to have some success against Lynn, but it's not an offense that will typically put up a lot of runs. On the other side of things, there is a certain degree of unknowns, given that this will be a bullpen game. But I'll bank on the Giants' arms having some success. Its bullpen enters tonight with a Top 10 WHIP and ERA, and it should have its strongest arms rested.
Trend to know
The San Francisco Giants have hit the Under in 79 of their last 141 games (+15.10 Units / 10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Giants
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Giants vs Dodgers game info
|Location:||Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA|
|Date:||Saturday, September 24, 2023|
|First pitch:||7:10 p.m. ET|
Ryan Walker (4-3, 3.20 ERA): Walker has impressed out of the bullpen this season. The 27-year-old has made the most out of his first career appearance in the majors with an excellent ability to induce the soft-hit ball. Entering today's matchup, he ranks in the Top 1% of major league pitchers in hard-hit rate and the Top 6% in barrel rate. With that said, his last two appearances have been rocky. He allowed four earned runs to the Diamondbacks and three to the Rockies. I'd like him to bounce back soon, though. Before those two starts, he had held opponents to one earned run or less in 20 straight appearances.
Lance Lynn (12-11, 5.92 ERA): Lynn has undoubtedly had some ups and downs since being traded to the Dodgers. But it seems he's on the back-end of his time as a major league pitcher. He's seeing career-worst numbers across the board from WHIP to ERA. In addition, he comes into this one off one of his worst months of the year, where he's posted an ERA over 7.00. The home run has been a consistent issue for Lynn, and his last start was no exception. That's when he gave up a home run and three earned to the Tigers.
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