Giants vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s MLB Game

While both of these pitchers have experienced their fair share of hardships this season – a year which promised plenty for two talented arms – Hayden Birdsong should be in a much more comfortable position than Gallen.

Gallen, six years the elder, has essentially forgotten how to pitch after a slight decline in performance over the last two years. His strikeout rate has dropped to 20.8% this season with his walk rate now approaching 10%, and that’s put the onus on him to rack up outs on contact when he needs to – something he’s done to varying degrees of success since his stellar 2022 season.

The righty has now allowed 19 home runs – good for second-worst in the National League – and while he’s shown some improved control this month, he’s grown worse at keeping the ball in the yard.

His Expected Slugging is a dastardly .490 thanks to a drop in ground balls and another rough year in terms of limiting hard contact. Against a San Francisco Giants team that has hit for power this year – and hits fly-ballers far better than ground-ballers, I believe this slumbering offense will wake up in a big way. 

That goes doubly when you consider the Giants are walking over 10% of the time over the last two weeks, which should earn them more baserunners against a pitcher who’s struggled to find the zone.

Birdsong hasn’t been all that better – allowing 11 earned runs in his last two outings behind some diminishing returns in the strikeout department – and while this is a tough spot for him to get strikeouts against a team which makes a ton of contact, he should theoretically find some success given the Arizona Diamondbacks splits disadvantage against fly-ball pitchers.

It might seem like a spot to either take the Over, or the stronger of the two offenses, but I can’t stomach backing the Diamondbacks here behind Gallen. On top of that, Birdsong is still young and improving, and it’s just been a couple of tough home outings against trendy offenses, which have done him in lately.

He’s still had a strong season, and there’s time for that to improve.

This is an excellent line on Hayden Birdsong’s walks despite the fact that he’s issued 12 free passes in his last four outings. The Diamondbacks’ walk rate is down under 7% over the past 14 days, and they’ve swung at pitches with the eighth-highest frequency in the league.

That’s going to mean plenty of batted balls – and even if you don’t like Birdsong here there’s a strong chance he’s chased from the game early if that contact proves to be disastrous – making this number all the more attainable.

I’m also going to have to take Rafael Devers for two or more total bases versus a pitcher who’s allowed extra-base hits like it’s his job. Devers has only faced Gallen three times, but owns a .843 xBA in those plate appearances. This is a prime buy-low spot on a supreme talent as he looks to break out with his new club.