It's back to the grindstone, as there's no rest ahead of our MLB expert picks on Wednesday, Aug. 12.
Today, our baseball gurus are looking at a pair of plus-money moneyline picks, an Under between two struggling offenses, and a Boston Red Sox team righting the ship after dropping two straight to the Toronto Blue Jays.
Let's dive in with today's MLB picks!
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: STL ML |
+144 |
 Jon Metler: SD ML |
+108 |
 Dustin Saracini: SEA/NYY u8.5 |
+108 |
 Joe Osborne: BOS ML |
-117 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Cardinals moneyline
Price: 41¢ (+144) at Polymarket
I want to fade Zack Wheeler in a lot of places today.
The Philadelphia Phillies righty is coming off a 116-pitch outing, his highest pitch count in more than five seasons. Making things worse, he threw just 32 pitches in his rain-shortened start before that and was pulled after 68 pitches in the prior outing, after allowing five runs over three innings.
There is also the ongoing distraction about whether his foot has been on the rubber, another distraction coming off a massive workload and not being in great form.
St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Kyle Leahy is a perfect home starter to back here, as he has quietly been one of the least-respected pitchers in baseball. He owns a 1.49 ERA over his last eight starts, with 40 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings, and hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of those outings.
Wheeler is overpriced in this matchup, and I'll take the 41 cents that I'd play to 45.
The Over 7.5 is also showing value.
- Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Cardinals.TV
Jon Metler's expert pick: Padres moneyline
Price: 48¢ (+108) at Polymarket
The Milwaukee Brewers might have the best record in baseball, but I'm siding with the underdog. Polymarket has the San Diego Padres trading at 48 cents, but I make them closer to a 53-cent favorite, giving us a meaningful edge at the current price.
A big part of that projection comes down to Petco Park. Robbie Ray's high fly-ball rate and susceptibility to home runs are less concerning in San Diego, where the marine layer and spacious dimensions can suppress his home-run variance. I'd be much less interested in backing him in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are also likely to stack aggressive right-handed hitters against Ray, creating a favorable matchup for his pitch mix. If he can establish his four-seam fastball up in the zone before sequencing his slider below the knees, he should generate chases and use the slider as a put-away pitch, keeping Milwaukee's lineup off balance.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Brewers.TV, Padres.TV
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Mariners at Yankees Under 8.5
Price: 48¢ (+108) at Polymarket
This is a matchup between two offenses that are in a tailspin.
The Seattle Mariners have lost five straight without scoring more than two runs. Their reward is seeing Will Warren on the mound, who's punched out this Seattle lineup at a 28% clip while limiting them to a .198 xBA across 35 plate appearances.
It doesn't get much easier for the New York Yankees, who own a .222 xwOBA against Bryce Miller. The Mariners right-hander has dominated the heart of the New York lineup, too, holding Heliot Ramos, Luis Garcia Jr., and Jazz Chisholm to a 3-for-14 mark.
What does that all add up to? An Under.
Play this to 55 cents over at Polymarket.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: ESPN
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Red Sox moneyline
Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket
The Boston Red Sox have a major offensive edge in this matchup and are in a great position to get back on track.
Boston has been the best team in baseball against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks, ranking first in OPS, and now faces Jose Soriano in his first home start with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Soriano has struggled with walks, which is a concern against a Red Sox lineup that consistently draws free passes.
Ranger Suarez should also be set up for a strong outing, as Toronto ranks 29th in OPS against lefties and at home over the past month. Boston’s bullpen, second in both ERA and FIP over the last two weeks, only strengthens the case.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NESN, Sportsnet
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| NYY ML | -130 |
| Read analysis in our Mariners vs. Yankees predictions | |
| MIL/SD u8.5 | -121 |
| Read analysis in our Brewers vs. Padres predictions | |
| PHI/STL o7.5 | -121 |
| Read analysis in our Phillies vs. Cardinals predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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