The Milwaukee Brewers visit the San Diego Padres this afternoon as a -113 moneyline favorite at Petco Park, with first pitch set for 4:10 p.m. ET.
San Diego is flourishing offensively, and my Brewers vs. Padres predictions are eyeing them to jump on Dustin May in just his second start with Milwaukee.
Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 12.
Who will win Brewers vs Padres today: Padres (+105)
The San Diego Padres send Robbie Ray to the mound for just his second outing since the trade. He struggled in his debut, allowing four earned runs, but the left-hander was sharp before that, posting a 2.08 FIP across his previous three starts.
The bigger focus is the Milwaukee Brewers' issues against southpaws. The Brewers own a 92 wRC+ versus lefties compared to a 108 mark against righties, and they also have a 92 wRC+ over the last week.
Dustin May allowed two earned runs in his Milwaukee debut, but he carried a 4.79 xERA over his previous three appearances. He now faces a Padres lineup with a 125 wRC+ over its last seven games.
I’ll back San Diego down to +100.
COVERS INTEL: The Padres have surged offensively over the last month, posting a 128 wRC+ compared to their 98 season mark. That 30-point jump makes San Diego a difficult lineup to fade right now.
Brewers vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-121)
This total sits at 8.5, and I lean Under. San Diego is swinging it well with a .204 ISO over the last week, but Milwaukee has shown less power, posting just a .147 ISO during that span.
The bullpen profiles also point toward a lower-scoring finish. San Diego’s relief corps has been elite, owning a 2.26 FIP over its last 26.2 innings while allowing just 0.34 HR/9. Milwaukee’s bullpen has also been sharp with a 2.84 FIP over the last week and the same 0.34 HR/9 allowed.
The late-inning matchup is the separator here, and both relief corps are in strong enough form to keep this total contained.
I’ll play this pick up to -130.
Brewers vs Padres home run prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr (+474)
Fernando Tatis Jr.’s power is finally waking up. The Padres star has clubbed four home runs in his last seven games while posting a massive .500 ISO.
His barrel rate sits at 26.9% over the last week, and his launch angle is up to 22.8 degrees during that span. In fact, 53.8% of his contact lately has been in the air. While May and the Brewers’ bullpen are not especially prone to the long ball right now, Tatis’ red-hot batted-ball profile is impossible to ignore.
Plus, even though May hasn’t had many homer issues lately, he is allowing 1.31 HR/9 on the road this season.
Play this pick down to +400.
- ML/RL bets: 48-58, -17.92 units
- Over/Under bets: 58-45, +6.31 units
Brewers vs Padres weather
Weather at Petco Park looks very stable today, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures sitting at 74 degrees throughout the afternoon. Winds are moderate around 9 mph, humidity is high, and rain chances are 0%. Overall, conditions look clean and mostly neutral, with no real delay risk.
Brewers vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Brewers -113 | Padres +108
- Run line: Brewers -1.5 (+144) | Padres +1.5 (-156)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)
Brewers vs Padres trend
The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+9.95 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Padres.
How to watch Brewers vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, August 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Brewers.TV, Padres.TV |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Dustin May (6-7, 4.30 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Robbie Ray (10-7, 3.24 ERA) |
Brewers vs Padres latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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