It's a full slate of MLB action on Tuesday, Sept. 8. Our MLB expert picks cover three of those clashes, including the Washington Nationals as big-time underdogs in San Diego.
The Philadelphia Phillies and Kansas City Royals also feature prominently in our MLB picks below.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: WSH ML |
37% |
 Neil Parker: PHI ML |
57% |
 Joe Osborne: KC ML |
49% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Nationals moneyline
Price: 37¢ at Polymarket
The Washington Nationals have dropped five straight games and have seen their market price fall, trading at just 37% today in a matchup where they can be competitive.
James Wood is back and has gone 6-for-19 with three extra-base hits since returning, boosting an offense that was the highest-scoring in the first half.
San Diego Padres starter Casey Mize is not a pitcher I want to back as a 67% favorite. He's struggled since coming over from Detroit, owning a 6.67 ERA with eight homers allowed over 27 innings.
His strikeouts are way down, and he's allowed five homers with just five strikeouts over his last three starts. His 6.05 xFIP is the worst of any San Diego pitcher in the second half with at least 20 innings.
The Nationals are going with a questionable opener, but every other arm is basically available. With the market giving them just a 37% chance to win, THE BAT's 42% fair price gives us enough value to take a shot on the Nats.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Nationals.TV, Padres.TV
Neil Parker's expert pick: Phillies moneyline
Price: 57¢ at Polymarket
The Philadelphia Phillies rank fifth in xwOBA with 4.7 runs per game across the past 30 days, while the Houston Astros rank last in the advanced metric with just 3.8 runs per game.
Promising Philly starter Andrew Painter has also found a groove, allowing two runs or fewer in five of his past seven starts while spinning a tidy 2.98 xERA and limiting opposing hitters to a minuscule 3.8% barrel rate.
Additionally, while Houston righty Hayden Wesneski has only allowed a single run across his past three outings, serious statistical correction is coming for his unsustainable .125 BABIP and 92.3% strand rate during the run.
For more, Neil gives a full breakdown in his Astros vs. Phillies predictions.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: TBS
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Royals moneyline
Price: 49¢ at Polymarket
This is a sneaky spot to back the home dog.
Corbin Burnes makes his season debut, but a limited buildup could keep him on a short leash. The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen could be stretched thin after burning through seven arms yesterday.
The Kansas City Royals rank third in home OPS over the last month and are well positioned to take advantage.
Michael Wacha has carried his strong season into the second half, with the Royals winning his last four starts. Add a reliable bullpen, and there’s plenty to like about K.C. at an underdog price.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Diamondbacks.TV, Royals.TV
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| LAD -1.5 | 57% |
| Read analysis in our Reds vs. Dodgers predictions | |
| TB ML | 50% |
| Read analysis in our Rays vs. Braves predictions | |
| CLE/BAL u8.5 | 49% |
| Read analysis in our Guardians vs. Orioles predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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