It's a full MLB slate today, and we're kicking off the week with some MLB best bets based on prices at the prediction market Polymarket, which allows bettors all across the country to join in on the baseball action.
Our expert MLB picks are below, with a distinct National League flavor to our April 6 plays.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: PIT ML |
-127 |
 Jon Metler: COL ML |
+163 |
 Neil Parker: PHI ML |
-113 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Pirates moneyline
Price: 56¢ (-127) at Polymarket
The Pirates draw one of the best matchups on the board against Germán Márquez, who was hit hard in his debut, allowing eight hits in just nine outs, including two home runs. THE BAT projects Márquez to allow the most earned runs of any starter today, with a fair price on the Pirates moneyline at -178. With 14 mph winds blowing out and Márquez’s fly-ball profile, Pittsburgh is in a strong spot to generate offense. On the other side, Bubba Chandler brings elite velocity and should be able to keep a light-hitting San Diego Padres lineup in check.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Rockies moneyline
Price: 38¢ (+163) at Polymarket
The Rockies cashed a parlay for me yesterday, and I wasn’t expecting to back them again on the moneyline today... but here we are — Go Rockies! The Houston Astros are sending Cody Bolton out for his first career start due to Hunter Brown’s injury. Even if Bolton manages to navigate Coors Field, he’s a career reliever, which means Houston will likely lean heavily on its bullpen — just one day after playing a 10-inning game against the Athletics in Sacramento. This sets up as a tough scheduling spot for the Astros, and the price on Colorado feels too strong to pass up. The Rockies are trading at 38% on the moneyline, but I make them closer to 44%.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Phillies moneyline
Price: 53¢ (-113) at Polymarket
The San Francisco Giants check in last in baseball in wOBA and wRC+ against righties, and they’ll face an elite young pitcher in Andrew Painter, who impressed in his MLB debut with eight strikeouts and a 31% Called Strike + Whiffs rate. In the opposite dugout, the Phillies sit fifth in wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed arms, with San Fran sending veteran Adrian Houser to the bump. He sports a run-of-the-mill 4.29 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 4.51 xFIP across 413 1/3 innings since the beginning of 2022, so I'm expecting the Phillies to put enough runs on the board to pull away.
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Royals ML | +110 |
| Read analysis in our Royals vs. Guardians predictions | |
| Boston ML | +100 |
| Read analysis in our Brewers vs. Red Sox predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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