The series baseball nerds and bettors have been waiting for just got a little sweeter, as the San Diego Padres announced Fernando Tatis Jr. is coming off the IL prior to Friday night's first meeting against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The National League West rivals are not only expected to duke it out for the division crown all season long but are also two of the top three MLB betting favorites to win the World Series.
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Padres on Friday, April 16, with first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET.
Dodgers vs Padres odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTwo of the top three teams in World Series futures odds collide, and as of 7 p.m. ET, Los Angeles is a -148 favorite at DraftKings, after opening -159 Thursday night. Moneyline ticket count is running 3/1 and moneyline dollars 4/1 on the Dodgers. The total has been steady at 8, save for an hour this afternoon at 8.5, with the Over taking 67 percent of tickets and the Under seeing 57 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameDodgers vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Walker Buehler (1-0, 1.50 ERA): With the Dodgers signing Trevor Bauer, and future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw still around, Buehler sometimes can get overlooked. But he shouldn’t, as you can make the case he is the Dodgers’ best starter. Buehler has allowed just two runs on 10 hits in 12 innings of work in his first two starts, relying mostly on his fastball and curve. However, his fastball has found a little too much of the plate at times early on, and a team like the Padres could make him pay for that.
Ryan Weathers (1-0, 1.50 ERA): Weathers will work as an “Opener” of sorts in this game, as Padres manager Jayce Tingler will hope he can get three solid innings out of the lefty. Weathers has pitched well in his six innings of work, allowing one run on two hits while striking out six, but this will be his first career start, and against the defending World Series champs no less.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Dodgers: A.J. Pollack OF (Questionable), Gavin Lux 2B (Questionable), Cody Bellinger CF (Out), Brusdar Graterol RP (Out), Joe Kelly RP (Out).
Padres: Wil Myers OF (Questionable), Fernando Tatis Jr. SS (Probable), Taylor Williams RP (Out), Javy Guerra RP (Out), Matt Strahm RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Dodgers are 4-0 in Walker Buehler's last four starts as a road favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres.
Moneyline pick
The Padres have done fairly well considering they haven’t had Fernando Tatis Jr. for the majority of the early season. At 9-5, they have the second-most wins the in National League thanks to an excellent pitching staff and a solid approach at the plate.
On the other hand, the Dodgers look exactly like what you would expect from the defending World Series champs. They hit. They pitch. And they have the MLB’s best record at 11-2.
Buehler goes in Game 1, and that gives the Dodgers a big edge. Even though Buehler has a strong ERA and WHIP, he still isn’t pitching his best, which can be scary for opponents.
He faces a Padres lineup that gets Tatis back, and that should be a big boost if he is fully healthy. Because while San Diego has a solid record and ranks seventh in batting average, they've struggled at times to get that clutch hit, as they rank just 22nd in scoring, plating 4.18 runs per game. Buehler is 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA in five career starts against the Padres.
The Dodgers already have a ridiculous +34 run differential this season and have won nine of their 11 games by multiple runs. This is a tough task for a guy making his first career start, and while Weathers has a strong bullpen to back him, the difference in offense means siding with the Dodgers is the way to go in this one.
PREDICTION: Dodgers (-145)
Over/Under pick
When it comes to the total, the early money has come in on the Over. It looks like that will continue leading up until the first pitch, and there's a good reason why.
The Dodgers rank third in scoring, plating 5.8 runs per game, and are first in batting average and OPS, while the Padres aren’t far behind, ranking seventh in average and fifth in OPS. Plus, as noted getting Tatis back in the middle of the lineup should boost the Padres' potency at the plate.
When it comes to the pitching staffs, both are among the best in baseball, but neither has faced a lineup as good as each other so far this season. On top of that, the Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these NL West rivals. So, what we are saying is jump on the Over now before it gets any higher.
PREDICTION: Over 8 (-110)
Dodgers vs Padres betting card
- Dodgers (-145)
- Over 8 (-110)
Picks made on 04/16/2021 at 1:35 p.m. ET.
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