Editor's note: this preview was written prior to the news that Washington starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg would be scratched from today's start.
Two National League opponents will wrap up a four-game series on Sunday afternoon, with the NL East's Washington Nationals hosting the NL West's Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona and Washington split the first two games, before Washington earned a 6-2 win on Saturday.
Can Arizona come back on Sunday and earn a series split? Check out our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Nationals on April 18 at 1:05 p.m. EST.
Diamondbacks vs Nationals odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonWashington opened -205 Saturday night and stretched to -220 at FanDuel prior to this morning's news that Stephen Strasburg (shoulder) would miss today's start. The moneyline is now down to Nationals -164, though Washington is still drawing 82 percent of tickets and 83 percent of cash. The total opened at 8.5 (Over -114) and is up to 9 (Over -120), with 56 percent of tickets on the Under and money running dead even.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Diamondbacks vs Nationals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Madison Bumgarner (0-2, 11.20 ERA): The long-time San Francisco Giant got off to a rough start in Arizona in 2020, the first year of a five-year, $85 million deal, as MadBum went 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA, striking out 30 batters over 13 2-3 innings. It hasn't been much better to begin year two. Bumgarner is 0-2 with a hideous 11.20 ERA and eight walks. He is, however, averaging his highest strikeouts per nine innings (9.9) since 2016.
Paolo Espino (2020: 0-0, 4.50 ERA): Stephen Strasburg was originally set to start today, but he was scratched two hours prior to first pitch and placed on the IL with shoulder inflammation. Espino was recalled from the Nationals' Alternate Site camp in Fredericksburg to make the spot start. The 33-year-old righty gave up eight hits and three earned runs across six innings in two appearances in 2020, his first MLB appearances since the 2017 season.
Weather
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Key injuries
Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte CF (Out), Christian Walker 1B (Out), Joakim Soria RP (Out), Tyler Clippard RP (Out).
Nationals: Stephen Strasburg SP (Out), Luis Avilan RP (Out), Josh Harrison 2B (Questionable), Jon Lester SP (Out), Will Harris RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-3 in the last nine meetings between the Nationals and Diamondbacks. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Nationals.
Moneyline pick
The Nationals have shown signs of life after an 0-6 start, a signal that the 2019 World Series champions will be able to return to form after a poor 2020 after all. Washington won two of three against the Cards after that 0-6 start and hold a 2-1 edge in its series against the Diamondbacks. Even more encouraging still, the Nationals' underlying numbers at the plate have been solid even though they aren't cashing in runners consistently, and their staff, on paper, can be better than solid.
It's the opposite for the Diamondbacks at the plate, where they are scoring the 10th most runs per game but rank in the Bottom-11 in both batting average and on-base percentage. Arizona did little to improve a mediocre lineup over the offseason — though Eduardo Escobar's start is encouraging — there is little reason to believe the D-Backs can be a top-half of the league lineup.
Outside of Zac Gallen, the D-Backs' pitching staff isn't exactly threatening, either, with Bumgarner looking like a particular disaster. With a struggling starter coming up against a Nats lineup showing signs of life, we're siding with the home team.
PREDICTION: Nationals (-192)
Over/Under pick
Washington can be encouraged by a few recent positive performances at the plate, which is perhaps a sign that positive regression is coming as far as getting runners home. As of Saturday, the Nats are sixth in the majors in batting average and 11th in on-base percentage, but 27th in runs per game at 3.45.
The Nationals have been able to count on the top half of their lineup, with Juan Soto continuing the excellent start to his career, but the back-half has been quiet. However, on Saturday, they saw success up and down the lineup, as they tagged Arizona for 15 hits — made all the more impressive by Soto's 0 for 4 day at the plate.
They'll have the chance to replicate that performance on Sunday against the struggling Bumgarner. Even if Arizona only musters a couple of runs, Washington should find enough success against MadBum to push this one Over.
PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (-101)
Diamondbacks vs Nationals betting card
- Nationals (-192)
- Over 8.5 (-101)
Picks made on 04/17/2021 at 6:35 p.m. EST.
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