The first installment of this four-game series gets underway on Thursday evening with the Chicago Cubs hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks.
This series presents a massive opportunity for both teams in the NL playoff race as Chicago currently holds the second wild card spot, while Arizona is just a half-game out of the last spot.
Will the Diamondbacks close the gap, or can the Cubs defend their home diamond? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Cubs on September 7.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs odds
Diamondbacks vs Cubs predictions
Right-hander Javier Assad takes the mound for the Chicago Cubs and could be a good fade candidate. It has been a tremendous sophomore campaign for Assad, who is 3-2 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while alternating between the rotation and bullpen.
With that said, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming as the right-hander ranks in the 33rd percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit%. Assad also ranks in the 22nd percentile or lower in K%, Chase%, and Whiff%, which is the avenue in which we’re going to fade him in this contest.
Currently, you can find Assad's strikeout prop at 4.5 at FanDuel, a number he has failed to surpass in four of his past six starts. These strikeout woes are likely to continue against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
An under-discussed team in terms of hitting talent, Arizona ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, and OPS. This team particularly excels at avoiding strikeouts, ranking fourth in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
Looking at Thursday’s projected starting lineup, all eight hitters possess a K% south of 23% this year. Opposing starting pitchers have also recorded four or fewer strikeouts in seven of the past 12 games against the D-backs.
My best bet: Javier Assad Under 4.5 strikeouts (-138)
Diamondbacks vs Cubs same-game parlay
Javier Assad Under 4.5 strikeouts (-138)
Over 8.5 (-106)
Diamondbacks moneyline (+138)
While Assad is due for regression in the pitching department, he may get some solid run support as right-hander Ryne Nelson takes the mound for Arizona. Through 24 starts this season, Nelson is 6-7 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
Like Assad, Nelson’s underlying metrics also suggest that rough waters are ahead. Additionally, each lineup ranks in the top half of the league in almost every hitting category across the board.
With that said, I project the D-Backs as closer to +125 for this game, and I think the market has over-adjusted a bit too much for Assad’s recent strong performances on the mound.
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Diamondbacks vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Cubs opened as a –184 favorite and have since been bet down to -164. This line movement makes sense considering that Assad’s poor underlying metrics put him closer to the level of Nelson, which is overshadowed by his unsustainable strong surface-level stats.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 8.5 and currently remains at that number. With two strong lineups and two pitchers with poor analytics, I only see this total moving up if it goes away from 8.5.
There have been nine or more total runs scored in each of the past three meetings between these two clubs.
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Trend to know
Assad has recorded four or fewer strikeouts in four of his past six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Cubs
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Diamondbacks vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Thursday, September 7, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Arizona, Marquee Network |
Starting pitchers
Slade Cecconi (0-1, 4.44 ERA): It has been a tough sophomore campaign for Nelson, and his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely. He enters this contest in particularly poor form, going 0-2 with a 9.16 ERA and 1.87 WHIP over his past four starts.
Javier Assad (3-2, 2.69 ERA): Assad was putting together a solid year out of the bullpen before moving to the rotation full time in August. The transition was seamless, boasting a 2-0 record with a 1.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his past six starts. However, Assad's analytics suggest serious regression is around the corner as the right-hander possesses a 5.19 xERA and .269 xBA.
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