The Atlanta Braves look to make it a series sweep when they host the Arizona Diamondbacks this afternoon for Game 3 of this three-game set.
The bats have been booming in this series, meaning Braves veteran lefty Chris Sale and Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson will have their hands full today.
The Braves are heavy MLB odds favorites today to get the sweep, but can the Diamondbacks pull off the upset?
Join me as I break this one down with free MLB picks for Diamondbacks vs. Braves on Sunday, April 7.
Diamondbacks vs Braves odds
Diamondbacks vs Braves predictions
Once upon a time, Atlanta Braves southpaw Chris Sale was one of baseball's most feared strikeout pitchers.
Injuries have slowed the former fireballer — he’s made 32 starts over the previous four seasons — but he’s been able to stick around the show based on the promise of his big stuff that saw him strike out 11 per nine over his career would return.
Sale has shown that promise thus far with the Braves. He whiffed 24 hitters over 12 2/3 Spring Training innings and struck out seven Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in a season-opening loss.
The veteran lefty may have struck out seven in his season debut, but the Phillies' 16.7% barrel rate and 41% hard-hit rate are concerning — both are career highs for the veteran, which is why striking out six or more against the Arizona Diamondbacks isn't likely.
Arizona isn’t a team that strikes out much — it boasts the lowest strikeout rate (14%) in baseball against southpaws. They don’t chase pitches and boast a whopping wRC+ of 163 over 114 plate appearances.
The Snakes may be looking at getting swept, but they’ve scored 13 runs through the first two games of this series — all of which came before the fifth inning. They’ll be ready to go from the first pitch after a pair of one-run losses to the Bravos.
The Conductor has shown some of his old strikeout magic, but he’s also been hit hard and meets an offense with a .995 OPS and .432 wOBA across 114 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
My best bet: Chris Sale Under 5.5 strikeouts (+114 at FanDuel)
Diamondbacks vs Braves same-game parlay
Chris Sale Under 5.5 strikeouts
Diamondbacks first-five -0.5
Over 9.5
Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson had a tough start against the Yankees. They hit him hard in Arizona, but it was the Snakes' leather that was primarily responsible for his tough outing.
Atlanta boasts one of the best offenses in baseball, with their past three ending Over the number.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Diamondbacks vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Arizona opened as a large underdog (+170) with Braves money driving the odds to +180 across the market.
- The total markets report Over 9 (-115) and Over 9.5 runs from +100 to -105 across the industry.
- The Diamondbacks are 8-0 in Nelson's last eight starts when their opponent scored 5+ runs in their previous game.
Trend to know
The Over is 4-1-0 over their previous five meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Braves
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Diamondbacks vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, April 7, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, Bally Sports Southeast |
Starting pitchers
Ryne Nelson (0-1, 13.50 ERA): Command issues have plagued Nelson throughout his brief career. He issued four free passes in his season opener to New York and looks to bounce back today after that dreadful 2 2/3 inning start against the Yankees.
Chris Sale (0-0, 3.38 ERA): The veteran lefty struck out seven in his season debut with the Braves. The former fireballer scattered five hits with a bomb in his first start at Philadelphia and looks to build on this today in his first home start for Atlanta.
