The New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves will face off in the rubber match of their three-game series at Citi Field on Thursday night.
These teams have played two slugfests this week, and I’m predicting they’ll hit the Over again in my Braves vs. Mets predictions.
Let’s take a closer look at tonight’s game and find the best bets to make in my free MLB picks for Thursday, August 14.
Braves vs Mets prediction
Braves vs Mets best bet: Over 8.5 (-120 at Caesars)
The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves have played two wild games so far this week, with totals of 17 and 18 runs on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Now, with two pitchers who are struggling as of late on the mound and both bullpens largely depleted, we’re on tap for another slugfest tonight.
Kodai Senga has great numbers for the Mets this year, and he’ll likely both lengthen his starts and get better results going forward. But he has struggled since returning from his hamstring strain, putting up a 6.61 ERA in 16.1 innings of work over his last four starts. He hasn’t gone more than five innings since his return, but will likely be asked to go at least that far tonight.
Atlanta starter Bryce Elder has been struggling for much of the past two years after a strong 2023 campaign. This season has seen Elder go 4-9 with a 6.12 ERA and a 1.560 WHIP. Things aren’t getting better, either: Eldar has allowed 15 earned runs in 15.1 innings over his last three starts.
Both lineups are red hot right now, and both starters are vulnerable. This is a clear spot to back the Over.
Braves vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
I see another high-scoring game on tap tonight, but I still think the Mets have the edge. I’m throwing in a bet on New York to cover the run line behind Senga for my SGP. I’m also going to take Senga to hit the Over on his strikeout total as the Mets continue to stretch him out in his return from injury, especially as they could use some starter length after yesterday’s game.
Braves vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta +164 | New York -184
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-128) | New York -1.5 (+101)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Braves vs Mets trend
The Over is 4-1 in the last five matchups between Atlanta and New York. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets.
How to watch Braves vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, Queens |
| Date | Thursday, August 14, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSNSO, SNY |
| Braves starting pitcher | Bryce Elder (4-9, 6.12 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Kodai Senga (7-4, 2.30 ERA) |
Braves vs Mets latest injuries
Braves vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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