It was a second straight 2-1 SU day, and the Gavin Williams fade might have been the best play of the summer. It’s another small Thursday slate, but there are still plenty of pitcher angles and edges to look at — even in the afternoon market.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Thursday, August 14.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for August 14
Skubal u18.5 outs (-105)
Senga u4.5 Ks (+130)
Boyd u17.5 outs (+100)
Tigers vs. Twins
The angle: There is some potential rain, and Skubal does not need to be pushed this late in the season
The move: Tarik Skubal Under 18.5 outs (-105 at DraftKings)
There is some potential rain in Minneapolis today that Kevin Roth has labeled as orange/yellow and is projecting a possible delay. I don’t love betting on the weather, as things can always change, but there are other reasons why I like this Under.
Tarik Skubal is not a 100-pitch pitcher and has hit triple digits just twice across 23 starts this year. THE BAT is projecting 95 pitches and 18.09 outs, and that’s not including the possible rain.
It's a road start, the Detroit Tigers are very comfortable in the division and should get the No.1 or 2 seed, and there is no need to push the ace lefty, who is coming off his shortest outing of the year — 4.2 innings vs. the Halos. He has also given up 3+ runs in half of his last eight starts, so the form isn’t great entering tonight’s hopefully wet outing.
Braves vs. Mets
The angle: Senga's pitch count is already low, and his poor command vs a high-BB% team is going to hurt him
The move: Kodai Senga Under 4.5 strikeouts (+130 at bet365)
Kodai Senga has not pitched well of late, going more than 15 outs just once in six starts where he has thrown 79, 17, 92, 73, 67, and 77 pitches. He has 23 Ks over those 26 innings and has had serious issues with walks — 17 in total.
That’s bad news today as the Atlanta Braves are walking at one of the best rates in baseball over the last two weeks. His walk prop is at 2.5.
This is going to drive up his already throttled pitch count for a New York Mets team that can’t afford to lose right now. His Under 4.5 Ks is the market I want to target for another poor performance at plus money. If this moves to +110, I’d rather take his Over 2.5 walks at -110.
Cubs vs. Blue Jays
The angle: The Jays are very tough on LHP, and Boyd does not have a long leash to begin with
The move: Matthew Boyd Under 17.5 outs (+100 at Hard Rock)
The last pitcher prop of the day was a little hard to find, and for this Matthew Boyd Under, I have turned to the Toronto Blue Jays’ success vs. left-handed pitching.
Toronto walks at the second-highest rate vs. southpaws on the season while also boasting the third-best average and sixth-best wRC+. There are potentially seven guys in today’s lineup with a wRC+ of 100 or better vs. LHP this year, with 100 being league average.
It’s an afternoon getaway game for the Chicago Cubs, but the Jays will stay put for their upcoming series vs. the Rangers, so I see them less likely to mail in an offensive performance.
Boyd is also a low-pitch-count starter who is averaging just 87.5 pitches over his last 10 games. The Jays can run up a pitch count and do so even better vs. lefties. Buy this to -125 with your MLB picks.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
